muse900

Well tbh, hype does tell you something about future demand. It doesn't guarantee sales, but how excited people are about a product gives you an idea of how likely they are to buy it.

I think Nike lost some of its cool while the competition got better. For me, the turning point was walking into a Nike store and thinking their prices were way too high for what I was actually getting.

I reckon they'd be in a much worse position without Jordan. It's still a massive part of their appeal, even if its sales have slowed too.

And the stock market doesn't just look at today's revenue and performance. It also prices in what people expect to happen next. If people think a brand is losing its appeal, they won't necessarily wait for that to fully show up in the numbers.

Yes for sure there are people that writing code is the whole deal.

How many of them are driving goals and businesses though?

Like if we take for example an ex coder like Gabe, someone from his team comes up and says to him "we can launch this game in 1 year by using LLMs, codebase will be meh/okish" or "we can launch this game in 4 years we'll hire the top engineers and write the best software piece ever, a technical novelty".

I already know his answer... even if his answer was the 4 years which won't be, his board would disagree.

So yes there are people that love and enjoy writing software, but the truth is that business is leading software, not the other way around.

For me personally nowadays I don't need languages, I am so deep into coding using LLM's, not vibing, that I don't really mind on what is written. Also we are just at the start of this thing.

I get what you are saying, but how can we be talking about skill atrophy when our main skill is changing from being able to produce code ourselves to being able to leverage LLMs to write that code.

At the end of the day there are goals achieved with coding. Coding is a tool to reach either your business needs or some personal aspiration.

When it comes to businesses I don't think a business cares if you used the best stack possible, or you've written it in assembly, as long as it works. Judging from the biggest coding drivers out there, most of the code produced globally and the biggest apps out there have had skilled engineers writing code but its not always perfect. As long as it works. Lets not forget that the web is build in php and js.

So again my argument is that, are you atrophying a skill that is going to exist in the next 1 to 2 years, or is everything going to shift towards LLM code writting.

Personally I think that LLM code writing is the winner, whether we like it or not, it accelerates business objectives, which at the end of the day its what is the deciding factor.

And yes I do miss the days I was writing code and I was solving complex problems myself.

Yes but not always applicable unfortunately… e.g. the other day I was in Italy, I needed to park on the publicly available parking which was paid to the municipality.

No other parking available anywhere near in 30 mins walking distance. (paid or free)

I had to download a 3rd party app that asked me to register. This app isn’t by the Italian government, it’s affiliated though.

So in that situation, I want nothing to do with your website or app, because I wouldn’t able to park.

Because nowadays the stockmarket is build upon hype, this is why we are having the market caps and valuations we are having that are in any way shape or form reflecting anything that is real.

For the Gov to come out and block a model for national security, its gonna swing the market into thinking "oh anthropic really has the next generation of LLMs out there, its that good Gov banned it, this company is going to the moon".

The part of banning non US nationals, I believe is a legality, as in they have to trust US citizens to do right by their country. I don't think in court a whole ban on a product for security reasons would stand. (The judge would ask for the gov to explain why all US nationals are a security threat to their country)

Nevertheless, again I am standing behind number 2 personally as the main reason for such a thing, market manipulation is not new and its currently at its all time high. Also anthropic is part of this manipulation so far, with every other AI company out there.

Again I am just presenting my POV, it could as well just be number 1... A gov became competent enough to find security threads before they happen :)

Yes! I mean everyone is speaking about this in a boxed manner.

For all we know there are might be several reasons for that ban e.g.

1) There is an actual security threat and its just simple as that.

2) Someone wants Anthropic to be valued way higher and the companies that have invested in Anthropic already... This ban only validates this product and will move the market in higher valuation of Anthropic due to their model being "so good gov had to ban"

3) Someone doesn't like Anthropic and just wants to shut down its current edge (highly unlikely, if there was no IPO filing in place it could be possible but now the valuation just goes up, same as the 2 As that have invested in them)

4) Someone freaked out that we'll be left out of jobs soon so wants to slow down progress, tbh using fable so far I can tell that a lot of jobs can be made redundant cause of that...

For me the most likely for now is 2, then 1 and then maybe 4.

On June 22 Chatgpt will most likely come out with their new model too, which as I understand will be an answer to mythos. Lets see if the US gov goes the same route.

Personally I believe that our communities and mental health deteriorate through social media especially in a young age.

Although I am a firm believer of the above, I do not believe that Governments are doing it because they do care about our health. Quite the opposite. I believe they want to manipulate us as much as they can so they can keep in power.

Although they want that, they have seen that social media has the power on gathering people and creating protests, so I believe they want to cut it off on younger people that usually have way more anger and got much less to lose (nowadays that the light at the end of the tunnel is fading) than a middle-aged man being mind-controlled his whole life being a good abiding citizen.

Its a power tool, they are just swinging it where they want. Soonish in EU we'll have the same ban, but it won't be because EU politicians cares about children, it is so they can keep their power and not have a generation that has access to other sources than traditional media and structured schools grooming them on just obeing their masters.

Really?

I mean are we forgetting about kids gambling lootboxes in CS and Valve doing nothing to regulate it?

I mean yes compared to the rest of the gaming companies that are long way gone like Blizzard etc, Valve seems to be the better, but its not like they are saints...

It always amazes me how us as people forget the past (which is not even far away).

I agree with plenty of what you are saying, at the same time I believe that joining problematic start-ups or failing start-ups can teach you plenty on how not do things.

Remember that before succeeding you have to fail and improve in a cycle of n times until you succeed. If you succeed without failing then there is a high probability of luck being involved.

agree, for me mostly for some reason its the fear of not finding another job...

But well if you are depressed at your job... how bad can it get?

And can really the money you make from a job make back for the depression? My personal opinion is NO!

Usually its the extremes that are having the same effects.

Atm I am in a super demanding job, requiring me to overwork, make decisions on the spot, work on problems etc.

On my free time while I want to sit down and watch some TV, go for running, enjoy a nice dinner or whatever... I FEEL EMPTY!

I am fixated with my work... its not healthy and its creating low motivation for me. It feels like work has taken away all pleasures in life for me. It is not HEALTHY at all (I am currently seeing professionals about it)

Generally anything in moderation is key...

P.S. I do overwork myself for someone else to enjoy the fruits of my labour... sad story.

"So stripe here would charge an EU card from its EU entity, US from the US, GB from GB etc etc, regardless of where the merchant is actually located. Maybe there is something fundamentally different with the workings of Visa / MC payments and clearing though that means this is not possible?"

Not really. The transaction happens on the country the merchant Operates.

If you are a merchant within the EU and stripe accepts a txn on your behalf, if that txn is from a card issued by a UK institution you will be charged the extra fee.

Personal experience has taught me that there is a MAXIMUM amount of COMP that you will receive as an employee, no matter how much hard work you put into your company.

So basically what is happening, is that you are working hard for some achievements, that someone else is going to benefit off.

Although I use incognito mode as a workaround (if you open the article on incognito it shows it without the paywall, at least it does for me), I find Medium tutorials badly written or written by people with limited technical knowledge.

I'd say 95% of my process with medium goes like this:

1) Finds a blog with a tutorial or something relevant. 2) Opens it and sees a paywall 3) Opens it in incognito mode 4) Browses through the article 5) Leaves the page and learned nothing

“Time is money friend” - greedy goblin in world of Warcraft

No but seriously that’s a precious advice. Don’t waste your time, our time in this earth is limited, better make the most of it!

While Erdogan is behind the wheel, Turkey will keep suffering his power-plays. Its very unfortunate that he doesn't want any conflict resolution, just power games (don't forget blocking social media sites in Turkey etc). I have a feeling that Turks do want to progress and be part of the westernized world but he is keeping them behind. A week ago he converted a highly valuable world heritage monument into a mosque knowing it will damage his relationships with Europe. Reopening Famagusta is only gonna make things worse.

Generally speaking the area has been conflicted from all sides, e.g Israel-Palestine etc, and it feels like noone really wants to fix things up and let the area heal for generations to come? I mean come on people we are in 2020 and we act like we are 70 years ago... we should be thinking out of the box.

Although I am biased on this subject as I legally own land that I can't use or visit in Famagusta, I thought I'd share my opinion.

Small-medium hotel owner here, that used to write code for a living.

What just happened in my industry, is forcing me to go look for a job. I don't think we are going to open for summer season or even if we do its not gonna make enough to live by.

Hundreds or thousands of years ago, a few had all the wealth and then most people were poor. We even had slaves.

I can't believe that in 2020 and with all the knowledge we've acquired as humanity we've allowed a few people to acquire all the wealth.

I am gonna struggle with paying any tax coming my way this year, or even supporting my employees who they very much need the job. And on the other hand, there are corporation that don't need to pay much tax through their umbrellas and then again they pay their employees peanuts so they can have a CEO that is worth in the hundred of billions of $. Sad to see that humanity hasn't improved at all.

must be fake, from the whois I cannot see amazon being registered, its just hidden which is not normal by such a huge organization. I might be wrong but just from the whois I wouldn't believe its amazon.

To add to that, I was listening to an expert from Standford saying that the data set we currently have is not correct and we don't have the full picture.

We might be seeing X deaths in china but that might not be true, due to less testing etc currently, so the mortality rate is a bit skewed.

Want to wish you well, and its quite nice after all this sorrow to see that there are still nice ideas out there that are capable to not only survive but prosper.

That's the principle, but it doesn't reflect to the reality around us, or at least my reality.

I am in the tourism industry, owning a small-medium hotel.

If I stop paying any loans and generally I am left out of cash-flow I am pretty much screwed for the next few years, if not closing down.

I know though a few people around my area with massive resorts and a debt over 100mil that have already stopped paying quite a few loans themselvs and they are getting away with a slap on their wrist. The gov gets involved cause the debt is enough to damage a bank, and the people that are going to be left without a job are enough to cause a mini crisis. Then the bank itself... well for them its not just about ceasing the asset as its gonna be a hard thing to sell or manage.

Meanwhile the owners are taking out massive salaries + bonuses for their personal accounts and don't care about their balance sheet being a mess and their debts growing.

I would like to see if Gov officials apply the same 'herd immunity' tactic to themselves and their relatives as well.

Would be great to see if Boris Johnson and his cabinet and their close ones are staying home or not.

I wouldn't say that directly applies to what Google is trying to do.

I think what Google is doing is just re-investing back into x amount of companies/ideas where even if 1-2 of those companies bounces back and becomes profitable they make up their investments + they make profit.

I think they do realise how much money there is to be made in the gaming world and such. Its just time and money against profit for them.

Throw eggs in the wall and see what sticks or not.

Personally I don't like that model and thats why I use google services less and less. Even gmail is a huge no-go for me due to their nonexistent support.

I'll agree with you on that.

Take PHP as an example. I'd say from a technical perspective not many people would go with it from a technical standpoint but we can't ignore that massive companies like FB for example were build on that (no matter if they grew out of it at a later date).

> Lots of Money + Lots of People =/= Guaranteed Success

I'll agree on that.

I won't agree with the rest though, I don't think DO can compete in an enterprise level.

Actually in the longrun I don't see DO ever being viable. AWS and google are going to become simpler as the time passes and they are going to take over that margin that is left on services like DO, ovh etc. I think the only viable business plan for them right now would be to focus on their simplicity and continue building on it hoping they will get bought out by the big players. Obviously thats not good for us -> amazon and google owning everything on the web but unless there is some crazy law that limits them from doing so, they are going to do it.

ye I agree, it feels impossible to penetrate that market unless you have many billions and the actual engineering knowledge behind it.

I think DO is good for the small/average player that doesn't wanna invest time into having his team learning the AWS quirks because his business isn't in heavy need of it.

If AWS or even google ever goes after the small/average user by creating an easier to understand/navigate service for the user that doesn't need all that overhead and time investment of that bizarre learning curve just to setup a simple application, then its just gonna kill DO and other services like that out there.