mihoda

This is way too real.

We put off kids because of housing.

Examples near me: Gilman St and 580/80, Eastshore freeway (a street), and frontage. Unsigned. Terrible asphalt. Slow and safe.

Marin and Masonic (bart track underpass): flashing red most of the day lately -> safe.

Where have we heard that before?

What a long-winded way of saying car oriented infrastructure has destroyed our health.

1) your argument is right 2) but it hasn't been an average of every 7 years in at least 30 years.

It's 13.2 years. And perhaps it shouldn't be. There's lots of foregone opportunities when you stick in a home and don't move to better employment.

Where are you finding 3% mortgages?

The math is simple.

In the East Bay right now the cash flow (mortgage + prop tax + maintenance) alone for home ownership is 2.5x my rent for an identical property. It comes down to 2.2x when factoring in mortgage interest deduction and rises back to 2.3x when considering opportunity cost of capital.

I did a broader analysis and came up with 1.75-2.25x for other homes.

For a rational actor to buy a home right now, it implies a 5-6% expected return on the home price every year for an average of 10 years.

I, a dumb person, simulated sequences of draws and convergence seems way slower than the first poster indicates.

# R lang

samples = 1000

sample_len = 10000

x <- sapply(1:samples, function(i) cumsum(runif(sample_len)))

check_sample_at_len = sample_len

plot(density(x[check_sample_at_len,]))