hcmacro

Nope, the Fed cares about PCE because that’s the inflation measure it targets over time. Consequently, core PCE and core PCE services ex-housing.

CPI and PPI matter for policy setting to the extent that their components feed into PCE. But Core CPI Services-XH and Core PCE Serviced-XH have little overlap in their components. The Fed is concerned about the latter falling because real rates, in the model that the Fed uses, get tighter the longer rates remain on hold. Just look at the last quarterly SEP—it forecasts PCE not CPI.

CPI ain't PCE my guy. Other than suggesting a firm January print, this print has not really changed forecasts for core PCE--the Fed's preferred target---to hit 2% yoy by May.

Rather than repeat the "markets remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent refrain," I will give you a less common reason for caution...

If you're right, you'll likely be tempted to short again.

quite possibly one of the dumbest things you can do, even if you end up being right at some point.

same same

You should look up Wynne Godley and Sectoral Balances.

I'd say Japan (China followed Singapore in development).

So Stripe going to get marked down again? Tough to IPO this far below your valuation high water mark, at least judging from its closest comp.

And not too many years later, Northern Europe went to war with the Sun King. Longevity regression is equally likely if that happens again.

Read Prospects for Industrial Civilization by Bertrand Russell and you'll see that the reactionary turn by the "Old Left" was inevitable.

Perhaps the most terrifying headline I've read in a while.

Hopefully the laid off employees fared better than the retail bagholders.

The Last of Us

I get the sense that cultural malaise and managerial rent-seeking afflict many legacy firms (outside of tech). In some ways, such corporations feel like they're converging with peers in Japan---a gerontocratic society with limited social mobility (not a novel observation). If corporate America is indeed undergoing a process of "Japanification," such a phenomenon would likely result in outcomes at odds with received wisdom on career success. The type of worker "unruliness" documented here then should be unsurprising.

(As an aside, I find it interesting that Japan has had pretty low levels of unemployment over the past twenty years. One might even expect this in a paternalistic society that bolsters rent-seeking incumbents. Hence, individuals can feel "stuck" even as the media superficially assesses data to fit the narrative of a "hot economy.").

Check out VNM, the country ETF, for a chuckle.

Headline is clickbait tbf