gnoop
Some are going to Tildes. Some are going to Lemmy, though the two most popular servers are dying right now. Enough went to kbin.social that they disabled registration. Then there's mentions of Raddle and Mainchan depending on your preference.
Discord servers with forums seem to be the big one from what my oldest was showing me. Seems that plus some additional web forums will end up filling in the gap.
Reddit will probably still last for a while as it bleeds out users. We'll have to see what replaces Reddit. Nothing proposed so far is going to be the new consolidated home.
That said, I have a tendency to filter a fair bit to avoid the major problems but there's going to be some news that I should hear but is not good news either.
I had a chat the other day with a friend. He's deleted the app as he's been on it quite heavily and needed a break. It's certainly something I've heard out of some people. Meanwhile, there's others looking for where the migration is going, assuming a Digg to Reddit type migration.
The exodus from Reddit seems to be to disperse among a combination of other forums, some Reddit-like sites like Tildes and Lemmy, and Discord.
Once we go through that for a while, we'll maybe have another consolidation again once a new round of companies give it a go. At least that's my hypothesis.
And yeah, phpBB has improved. One site I've been on for a good 15+ years is running on it and it's got some decent features.
I'll probably still end up on Reddit for whatever it can provide for a while. Seems like the death spiral will be a slow decay more than anything and I'm not seeing any replacement for random facts and tidbits of knowledge, memes, or shitposting at the moment.
You have to first pick a server to join, then join that server. Once in, you're typically presented with local server content only. To see federated content, you have to select "All". Same story with looking at communities. Local first, All by selection only.
You then have problems with the style of Federation. If I create a community one Lemmy instance called tech then you create the tech community on another, we now have two tech communities separate from each other. Given your default community view is local, this presents a problem. You've already got a lemmy.ml technology community along with a beehaw.org technology community. It can quickly spiral into a mess of unintentional duplication.
I agree with you on things beginning to fracture off again. We've cycled forum expansion and consolidation since forums started. The big consolidations were Usenet and Reddit (aka Usenet 2.0). Their downfalls have let to the new expansions and we're seeing it.
New web forums and Discord will be the norm for a while. We'll see the Usenet 3.0 challengers start the new round of consolidation until the new Usenet 3.0 comes in. That took a while last time.
I suspect we may see another round of forum expansion again as people want to carve out their own niche communities again. We might not see Usenet 3.0 for a bit while we let people expand then let a new site come along and consolidate.
So far, there's been attempts to spin up new servers to mitigate issues on lemmy.ml and lemmygrad.ml while others are looking to Kbin which also federates with Lemmy but uses separate software.