Ask HN: Why do referendum polls suck?
With the 2014 Scottish Referendum [1] and with the 2015 Greek Referendum [2], opinion polls indicated that results might be "close" (say around 4%), but the former ended with a 10.3% lead, and the latter with a 22.6% lead. But why? Does this reveal a systematic problem with polling? Is it a problem with the sample (e.g. size, distribution, etc.)? Is it the nature of the questions in a...