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frasacco05

Show HN: DeepShot – NBA game predictor with 70% accuracy using ML and stats

https://github.com/saccofrancesco/deepshot

I built DeepShot, a machine learning model that predicts NBA games using rolling statistics, historical performance, and recent momentum — all visualized in a clean, interactive web app. Unlike simple averages or betting odds, DeepShot uses Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages (EWMA) to capture recent form and momentum, highlighting the key statistical differences between teams so you can see...

( Read More... | no comments | on HN )

Show HN: DeepShot – NBA game predictor with 70% accuracy using ML and stats

https://github.com/saccofrancesco/deepshot

I built DeepShot, a machine learning model that predicts NBA games using rolling statistics, historical performance, and recent momentum — all visualized in a clean, interactive web app. Unlike simple averages or betting odds, DeepShot uses Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages (EWMA) to capture recent form and momentum, highlighting the key statistical differences between teams so you can see...

( Read More... | no comments | 3 points | on HN )

Show HN: DeepShot – NBA game predictor with 70% accuracy using ML and stats

https://github.com/saccofrancesco/deepshot

I built DeepShot, a machine learning model that predicts NBA games using rolling statistics, historical performance, and recent momentum — all visualized in a clean, interactive web app. Unlike simple averages or betting odds, DeepShot uses Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages (EWMA) to capture recent form and momentum, highlighting the key statistical differences between teams so you can see...

( Read More... | no comments | 2 points | on HN )
The 71% accuracy refers to the fact that, given 2 teams, 71% of the time the team with the most percentage really won. For example tonight there was MIL vs GSW and it guessed correctly at 71% probability that MIL would have won and it happened. Or yesterday for example, where it guessed that DET won when the odds says a completly different stories. I see that in 60 / 40 matchups in terms of win probability it des a pretty good job because 60 / 40 is not a clear win and it really has guessed right since now in those type of games. When it comes to compare it to other methods, it's not that much better BUT, if combined with trend analysis, record, streak and overall player momentum you can have a boost in your predictions (not meant for betting btw, even if I'm testing it and I'm 15$ dollars starting with 10$ at the the start of the season)
I already builded a UI around it. I show it in the README of the repo :)

Show HN: DeepShot – NBA game predictor with 70% accuracy using ML and stats

https://github.com/saccofrancesco/deepshot

I built DeepShot, a machine learning model that predicts NBA games using rolling statistics, historical performance, and recent momentum — all visualized in a clean, interactive web app. Unlike simple averages or betting odds, DeepShot uses Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages (EWMA) to capture recent form and momentum, highlighting the key statistical differences between teams so you can see...

( Read More... | 5 comments | 3 points | on HN )