diomedes

not guaranteed but i think it's the most likely outcome considering current polls, and i don't expect Trump/GOP to win back many voters over the next two years

maybe i'm just a pessimist but i don't see anything really coming from this. democrats win in 2028, ICE gets scaled down and returns to Biden-era size, maybe 5-10 agents go to prison. so what if the public has their addresses and phone numbers? what changes?

updated link (for now): https://icepicx.is/

nowhere near accurate enough, i would estimate we would need 2-3 more orders of magnitude of data to make something remotely useful - i'm not a biologist though

yes. you have to recruit a diverse and representative population, which is very difficult and time-consuming. then, you have to spend several years conducting the trial. most of the time, the drug either has no effect or is actively harmful. 90% of drugs that go to clinical trials fail!

as opposed to the current people building houses who are doing it because they just love building houses so much

providing top-level medical care requires a very rare combination of incredible technical skill, organization, humility, and life-long dedication to the craft. i would wager that it's largely a numbers game. how many humans on earth have that combination of skills and traits?

perlmutter is also one of the best cancer centers in the country, things are often quite different at smaller hospitals

this is not the place to advertise your professional leeching business

i would argue they're on a different level of magnitude, especially considering you could just purchase a standing desk

>For one, I want to believe we have collectively gotten better in avoiding "dumb" deaths and injuries, these, that could have been prevented by inventing and following safety procedures.

better, yes, but there will always be inherent risk. even if you don't die, there will often be injuries from years of strain

the likeliness of achieving AGI is an unknown, but it's certainly not 0

interesting, i haven't heard anything about that. i don't know much about the hodge conjecture, all i really know is that it's incredibly abstract and obtuse - not sure if that has any implication for solvability by an AI though. do you have any source for the hodge rumor? curious to learn more

madness. which will be the next to fall? if i had to bet i would guess birch and swinnerton-dyer, but i'm no expert

Regarding this specific case, the analysis is sound. It is the majority opinion on Myanmar, but that majority opinion is held for good reason, e.g. China's desire to keep Myanmar together, complicated ethnic boundaries, desires of current EAOs.

The % responses adding up to over 100 makes sense, because the 25% outcome (formal secession attempt) and the 10% outcome (completed secession) could both occur, so it's implying that if secession is formally attempted, there's a 40% chance it will be completed. The numbers are broken down more clearly at the end - it is a bit confusing at first glance though.

>be able to sort through research and come to conclusions on complex geopolitical/sociological topics (e.g. theorize on whether AGI will result in mass poverty or mass abundance and be able to argue persuasively)

i'm not sure what makes you think AI cannot do this already. in my experience, this sort of deep research is something AI is quite good at.

example i just tested: https://chatgpt.com/share/6a9a20e3-1d20-83ea-a125-31aa240c74...

I'd rather see the culture that gave us the Ramayana, Mahabharata, Vedas, Upanishads, Algebra and many more outstanding creations have it's own way of doing capitalism, or whatever the heck they end up with, than having a another copy of the US, with more curry and funny accents.

This new Americanism seems like the cultural incarnation of entropy, whose sole purpose is desertify culture itself.

> The whole system is a fiction and can be patched for a long time with new fictions

That's a good way to summarize it, I tend to see this trend of governments creating their own digital currencies as the next step in the economic shitshow. One can even argue that's what a complex system would do: add more complexity, create more branches, justify the new bureaucracy with funny numbers and statistics, do anything to self perpetuate. Only time will show us if that's really feasible or if it'll all come crushing us down under it's own weight.

Huh... sorry your whole post is borderline racist and denies science, please refrain from posting from on similar topics in cyberspace.

Regards, Ministry of Truth

> Our national healthcare system is completely ready to face a pandemic like that

I lost a younger brother to that national healthcare system 10 years ago. Maybe this might be the case for the more developed regions (like the south & southeast), go to the north/northeast and you'll see the abyss.

> But common sense doesn't seem to play a role anymore.

If it were just a common sense problem the damage could be reverted in it's due time. It is about hierarchy, if you put weak people in power they'll game the system and push whatever the mob wants, it won't stop with random tech lingo.

Nope, but it's not the same thing. NixOS can easily provide me with free rollbacks and is mostly reproducible (https://r13y.com/). The funny part about NixOS is that once someone reports a weird behavior, almost everyone will have it and can verify/fix.

I've been using NixOS for 2 years now, my general impression is that even if Nix isn't the popular solution, it'll probably inspire the right way of doing things for the next years. It might not look like much, but representing the whole system's dependencies as a Graph database, then using a purely functional language to define such database has happily prevented me from shooting myself in the foot many times over the past year.

As someone who lives in Latin America and sometimes interacts/works remotely with North Americans I get this same impression. For better or for worse, America always seemed like the a place with issues, but with a people which could quickly gather and get shit done. Nowadays it seems you folks worry too much about semantics & ideology (on both sides) and will keep electing the next populist in hopes it'll fix all problems, just like Latin America lol.

Your opponent nowadays is a very pragmatic autocratic regime, with it's own issues, but this corona-crisis at least showed they can keep their mandate of heaven. Four more years in this culture war and you won't be able to get consensus on anything.