bsims

Hi Trevor and Jared, we have been building financial predictions on data from marketplace lending platforms. Curious to talk to you about where you see the business models of prediction going, examples other YC companies who are selling prediction and ML as a service, pricing strategies etc.

Any other Sunset start-ups out there?

Agreed on the institutional side. However LC also invests in their own loans from time to time, both directly or through LC Advisers.

In the early days LC invested their own capital more heavily to make sure loans were fully funded, and to ensure the community was active enough.

This is why they have "funded_amnt" and "funded_amnt_inv" to denote how much of the loan was funded by investors vs. internally.

A part of this article is false.

"LendingClub doesn't loan out its own capital and collects fees of loans that are originated on its platform from both individuals and more sophisticated investors alike."

Lending Club owns a subsidiary fund that invests in the platform as well.

Investors should be aware that LC is both a platform, and an investor in it's own platform which, if not monitored closely, can be potentially dangerous.

[Source] http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lending-club-announc...

My friend has been working on a TV series for years which finally was picked up last season by Esquire Network featuring craft breweries across the country. Awesome to watch it go from custom videos for the Craft Brewer's Association, to pilot, to first and second seasons. Super proud of them.

Brew Dogs. http://tv.esquire.com/shows/brew-dogs

In 2007 I was in the midst of uncovering a pump and dump scheme while communicating with the SEC (who were incredibly non-responsive and incompetent).

While trying to learn more about white collar crime, I uncovered a website, sharesleuth.com. The owner was writing stories on stock fraud/white collar crime, and we exchanged a few emails.

A few weeks later I found out Mark Cuban was backing him, and short selling the companies he found to be fraudulent. Cuban was doing this for two reasons: #1 To bring attention to white collar crime and #2 If the SEC wasn't going to shut down the companies, he might as well make money while doing it...inevitably bringing it back to #1. It looks like he was successful in drawing their attention.

A previous Wired article on Sharesleuth: http://www.wired.com/techbiz/people/magazine/15-10/mf_shares...

X-post from HN thread on the pump and dump I uncovered: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5236372

I've worked with several hundred regional banks and credit unions.

One thing people forget is that there are over 14,000 banks and credit unions across the country, not including the top 10. The challenges of regional FIs is dramatically different than that of large organizations. (Note, most comments on HN are from large banking backgrounds, very few from the other 14,000).

FWIW, the two themes I have seen emerge are:

1) Regional banks outsource a lot of their technology, often times leaving them with the inability to quickly adapt.

2) The regulatory environment drives technology and has created a gun shy approach to tech.

3) Most CEOs of banks and credit unions tend to have some type of finance background as opposed to technology.

Meanwhile student loan rates double tomorrow...

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/education-debt-mini...

...and the US Government is making more on student loan interest than Exxon profits.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/14/obama-student-loans...

I spend quite a bit of time analyzing lending data and personal finances.

I've also observed that when comparing a group of loans, those with homes were almost as likely to default on a loan as those without homes and it had minimal impact despite most people assuming that having a home makes a person "more stable." I have definitely seen many situations where a home becomes the priority over life, family and personal finances as well.

On the flip side, this argument also assumes that if consumers get better jobs, make more money, etc. that they'll actually save and/or invest more and the unfortunate reality is that most people just tend to increase their rate of consumption proportionately to their income/bonus increase.

So the nature of having a forced savings plan through a mortgage payment requires them to put money away yet still limiting their ability to move or take better positions.

Here is an interesting article talking about the $2 Trillion underground economy of people using cash to avoid paying taxes as part of the economic recovery.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/05/12/2-tr...

Is anyone else bothered by the fact that if the [Insert Kickstarter project here] doesn't materialize there are few things holding the founder/creator accountable?

In this case, if they don't obtain the video they are simply going to donate $200k to a charity that they will "figure out what that is later if it comes to it."

This is a fair point, but more often than not people living paycheck to paycheck aren't as familiar with dollar cost averaging and are probably just buying in $20 amounts because that's how much cash they have at that time.

The OP also said it was based on 5+ years worth of data which probably means it is less about gas price fluctuations and more about buying habits.

One of the things I appreciate about Ryan and the information he shares is that he provides very detailed information and a lot of it. He leaves it to the reader to determine what parts are helpful, which varies by what stage each company is at to your point.

However, I'd rather have too much information and be able to determine what is helpful myself at that point in time than to have someone choose to provide less information.

I don't think it necessarily has to be evenly distributed. If you think about options people probably either A) Made a good amount of money or B) Made none at all. Most companies issuing options are likely venture backed and not going to settle for a marginal gain. Thoughts?

It is fairly common for non-profits to own for profit subsidiaries which often become the main sources of revenue and sustainability for the non-profit.

Heard at an event last night that for one company, the legal cost to include UPS as a strategic investor actually exceeded the amount they invested but the company chose to do so in order to access UPS data.

There are also a lot fewer banking regulations which allow other companies to try new models with less risk of intervention. (e.g recent crowd funding/SEC issues)

I know the author of this post and notified him it had made the front page of Hacker News.

Thought it was ironic to find out from a person vs. Google Alerts.