Taikhoom10

We are in a bubble, but you are looking at this in the wrong way. OpenRouter basically creates lock-in through Stripe's distribution and family of products; it is much stronger within Stripe than alone. I agree valuations are absurd, but it is what it is. But if we have to go through a bubble for a16z to crash and burn, I am all for it.

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You're right in that OpenRouter alone does not have embedded switching costs, but bundled with Stripe's other offerings, it creates lock-in.

I think the PayPal acquistion is to buy something that throws of real cash, to prevent a down round for Stripe when valuations reset.

Yeah, I mean, it looks like a network effect, but anybody can aggregate the models; rather, it is the switching costs in the logs and work, and the cost savings, etc.

Yeah while a positive step, I do not understand a 90% stock increase.

Yes one of the premier zombie targets - https://s-1.vercel.app/posts/bending-spoons-a-capital-cycle-...

Yeah, the story of Acorn is ridiculous, and the fact that Intel rejected them, forcing ARM to make their own chips, really goes to show how things change.

yeah that's fair, Office Space is goated.

AI consumer hardware

Well I mean you have to pivot to survive, they likley should just sell to a larger dominant omnichannel retailer.

No defintley I would love to be consulatants, I think they can create value, It just depends.

yeah but are you independent?

sent you a email :)

ah so literally OpenRouter for voice eh? Well then I would ask, what happens when OpenRouter just ads voice, seems simple right?

I think OpenAI's opportunity is ai first hardware; I mean, the consumer is Google, simply because the distribution and the product are perfect. Enterprise is much better with AI; I do not see any AI-first enterprise companies succeeding in the long run.

Sure your right, it is probably bad for the brand in the long run.

Yeah, except profits are down from the peak. I do not know enough about the market, but my suspicion is that they basically benefited by focusing on a specific market, "Focus," and will basically see this erode over time as more companies in the high end move into their market.

I think generalizations are usually bad. I genuinely am weirded out by management's fascination with consultants. It really is about incentives, and consultants usually do not have the right ones, at least the big ones. Also, there are management which feel like companies always need change, but really you have to examine the competitve position within the broader industry not just a vacumm. Things honestly stay the same for a long time. IBM had more revenue then Microsoft all the way up to the early 2010s. Switching costs are powerful - https://s-1.vercel.app/posts/why-dropbox-is-a-obvious-pe-tar...

I think a key takeaway is the human nature to constantly act, and not just sit and do nothing. Lot's of value in sitting around, especially in investing.

No I think OpenAI deserves a meaningful valuation reset, but they are in a better potential strategy then Anthropic - https://s-1.vercel.app/posts/the-struggle-of-openai/

Contrarian take, even with free healthcare, UNH is happy - https://s-1.vercel.app/posts/unh-value-trap-or-chronically-u...

I can see the potential, but for the average consumer, they would prefer an integrated solution, but because Framework is using a "Focus market" as their business strategy similar to Instacart and grocer, they have a short to mid term window to earn outsized profits and build something more defensible.

https://s-1.vercel.app/

and yet people do not leave, hence the power of switching costs. (Paying Customers).

https://s-1.vercel.app/posts/why-dropbox-is-a-obvious-pe-tar...

I actually think the cursor acquisition will destroy value, unless completely left alone by Elon. Cursor's strength is its brand, and they should add more services, but should not integrate with Grok whatsoever.

https://s-1.vercel.app/

Anthropic's struggles have only started - https://s-1.vercel.app/posts/the-capital-cycle-theory/

It is all temporary and cyclical - https://s-1.vercel.app/posts/the-capital-cycle-theory/

I think Ads improves discovery as well as is the most profitable part of amazon - https://s-1.vercel.app/posts/marketplaces-airbnb-future-foun...

I think Ad's may be the best and most profitable part of Amazon.

https://s-1.vercel.app/posts/marketplaces-airbnb-future-foun...

So how exactly are you counter-positioned to Eleven Labs? They are serving a similar market correct?