IhateAI
The job market will get flooded with the unemployed (it already is) with fewer jobs to replace the ones that were automated, those remaining jobs will get reduced to minimum wages whenever and wherever possible. 25% of new college grads cannot find employment. Soon young people will be so poor that you'll beg to fight in a war. Give it 5-10 years.
This isn't a hard future to game theory out, its not pretty if we maintain this fast track of progress in ML that minimally requires humans. Notice how the ruling class has increased the salaries for certain types of ML engineers, they know what's at stake. These businessmen make decisions based on expected value calculated from complex models, they aren't giving billion dollar pay packages to engineers because its trendy. We should use our own mental models to predict where this is going, and prevent it from happening however possible.
THE word ''Luddite'' continues to be applied with contempt to anyone with doubts about technology, especially the nuclear kind. Luddites today are no longer faced with human factory owners and vulnerable machines. As well-known President and unintentional Luddite D. D. Eisenhower prophesied when he left office, there is now a permanent power establishment of admirals, generals and corporate CEO's, up against whom us average poor bastards are completely outclassed, although Ike didn't put it quite that way. We are all supposed to keep tranquil and allow it to go on, even though, because of the data revolution, it becomes every day less possible to fool any of the people any of the time. If our world survives, the next great challenge to watch out for will come - you heard it here first - when the curves of research and development in artificial intelligence, molecular biology and robotics all converge. Oboy. It will be amazing and unpredictable, and even the biggest of brass, let us devoutly hope, are going to be caught flat-footed. It is certainly something for all good Luddites to look forward to if, God willing, we should live so long. Meantime, as Americans, we can take comfort, however minimal and cold, from Lord Byron's mischievously improvised song, in which he, like other observers of the time, saw clear identification between the first Luddites and our own revolutionary origins. It begins:[0]
https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/97/05/18/r...
Typical boomers think the world is perfect because they have everything they need, without any care for the next generation. Thinking, oh they'll figure it out. Guess what we're not. The world is going to shit because of attitudes like this, you'll leave us with nothing.
You think its just SWE? It will be accountants, customer service, factory workers, medical assistance basically anyone who doesn't work with their hands directly, and they'll try to solve that here soon too and alienate them too.
Look at who's in charge, do you think they're going to give us UBI? No, they're going to sign us up to go fight wars to help them accumulate resources. Stop supporting this, they're going to make us so poor young men will beg to fight in a war. Its the same playbook from the first half of the 20th Century.
You think I'm paranoid, give it 5 years.
We are at all time high's in the stock market/equities and they've laid off 400k SWE's in the last 16 months. While going on podcasts to tell us we are going to have more time to create and do what we love. We have to work to pay our bills. We don't want whats coming, but they're selling us some lie that this will solve all our problems, it will solve the ruling classes problems that will be it. You will have no bargaining chips and you will be forced to take whatever morsels given to you.
Your competency will be directly correlated 1:1 to the quantity and quality of tokens that you can afford, given access too (or loaned??) We're literally at the beginning of a black mirror episode before it gets dark.
People that grew up in the Capitalist West have been brainwashed since they were 10 years old they they can be a billionaire too, no you can't there's 2k-3k of them and 8 billion of us.
These automation tools are the ultimate weapon for the ruling class to strip all value of you from your labor, and you're embracing that as a miracle. Its not, your life is in the process of being torn of all meaning.
Good luck to everyone who agrees, we're going to need it.. Anyone supporting these companies or helping enhance these model's capabilities, you're a class traitor and soon to be slave.
Required reading: https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/97/05/18/r...
You cannot compare any open source software, even as a whole, to the impact that LLMs have had on labor and are projected too. However, I might now argue it would have been better to not have so much open source, as its clearly being processed through these plagiarism laundering training regimes.
I don't really think LLMs, robotics and ML in general are going to increase GDP globally, they will instead just replace the inputs that were maintain the status quo (the workers). If they can't successfully replace human labor, it will at minimum greatly reduce its value, which is extremely dangerous.
Jobs grew greatly during the last 30 years of open source development but over the last 16 months we've had 350-400k SWE layoffs in the last 16 months in the USA. Many of these layoffs have been directly correlated to AI enhanced productivity. 25% of recent college graduates are unemployed. Jobs data is super unreliable at the moment, but we also will see large swaths of the lower skilled sectors, customer service for example, see huge layoffs in the coming 24 months.
Despite what C-Suites say about AI giving them more free time for their hobbies or whatever, they've yet to answer how people are going to afford those hobbies. Working as a barista lol? These same mouthpieces will say that llms are going to allow the same amount of engineers to get 10x more done, but they're not reflecting that in their business decisions. They are laying people off in swaths when equities are at all time highs, its abnormal.
I think its more likely the ruling classes will give us something to do by making us so poor that young men will beg to go fight wars. Put us to use on behalf of their conquest for more resources, that certainly did the trick in the 20s, 30s and 40s :/
Corporations and billionaires will get Ti-Nspires we get Ti-83s.
I do not agree that inference will get more affordable in time to prevent harm. It will cause way more problems with the devaluation of labor before it starts to solve those problems, and in that period they will solidify their control over society.
We already see it in how ML is being used on a vast scale to build advanced surveillance infrastructure. Lets not build the advanced calculators for them for free in open source please, they'd like nothing better. I wrote a lot more in the comments above also.
If anyone has time, this is required reading imho: https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/97/05/18/r...
I don't know how to prevent people from stopping this without shaming them. I think more shaming might be required, as uncomfortable as that may be. It's a societal wide prisoner's dilemma (well if I don't build it, someone else will), except we this isn't a prisoners dilemma and we can coordinate, sort of.
It would be one thing if GPUs and Tokens were cheap and everyone could take these implementations and out compete the corporations, but that's not the game theoretical terms we're on here. They have the resources, and I promise they are not going to let the average joe be able afford to out compete them. They are the ones that are going to be able to get the most advantage from these tools.. Why give them the extra leverage. It will be used to displace you. The ruling class or those with the resources, have zero intention of letting the tide rise all boats. And if there are any in the ruling class that do have good intentions, they will be rooted out.
We see this evidence all across literature, history, and in their own actions. This year in Telluride Colorado the Ski Patrol Union went on strike over wages. The billionaire owner who lives in California, Chuck Horning, did not want to concede to the Ski Patrolers over a $66k spread out over 3 years, like 22k a year over the contract length. He shutdown the ski resort during the Christmas holidays, and brought the town to its knees. This is just one example, but there are many. It is ideological to these people, its about maintaining their control over the working class. We are at the beginning of a class struggle that Earth has never witnessed before, with way more lives at stake.
I do not think LLMs are going to lead to super intelligence btw, I do believe it will get decent enough to uproot many lives when its used as a weapon against the value of labor and to accelerate concentration of resources into the few(er). We are up against people like Chuck Horner, who'd rather destroy an entire town of workers over 22k a year than concede any power. They have zero interest in building a equitable society, or we wouldn't see this type of behavior. This will 100% get used to replace you, then what will they do with us? They aren't going to just let everyone chill, I promise you that.
I believe the devaluation (and surveillance )of labor because of LLMs, robotics (machine learning in general) is the most pressing issue of our time.
I get the draw to building cool tools with these things, but please don't do it in the open. Let someone else do it, and then we can call them out too. The slower these developments can happen the better.
While I think all LLMs are shit, they probably eventually will not be shit, and it will because people like you contributed to their progress. Nothing good will come of it for you or your peers. The Billionaires who own everything will kick you out to the curb as soon as you train your replacement that doesn't sleep, eat or complain. Have some class solidarity.
LLMs are a weapon who's target is the working class. They will use every opportunity to devalue our labor and remove the working class's bargaining chips. AI is a dream come true for the ruling class, what do you think their plan is for us?
You think that they're going to allow the tide to raise all boats? The owner of Telluride ski resort shut the whole town down this year because he didn't want to negotiate with the ski patrol union. He didn't want to pay $65k spread out over 3 years. He's a billionaire. He punished a whole town to make a point. For these people it is ideological, it has nothing to do with saving money, or making more money. Its about having control over the working class.
American's are so brainwashed they embrace the ruling class as their protectors, while they laugh at them, they think their boss loves them or that they can be the boss one day.
If you're a surviving engineer at one of these companies enjoy working twice as much for the same amount of money.
It would be insulting, they'd get screamed out of the kitchen. Now imagine they're telling those chefs they're going to enforce those methods on them regardless whether they like it or not.
I'd say there's very little jobs that SWE automated away outside of SOME data entry, SWE's built abstractions on top of existing processes. LLM companies want to abstract away the human entirely.
lmao, please explain to me why these companies should be valued at 200x revenue.. They are providing autocomplete APIs.
How come Google's valuation hasn't increased 100-200x, they provide foundation models + a ton more services as well and are profitable. None of this makes sense, its destined to fail.
Back when automatic piano players came out, if all the world's best piano players stopped playing and mostly just composing/writing music instead, would the quality of the music have increased or decreased. I think the latter.
Using these things will fry your brain's ability to think through hard solutions. It will give you a disease we haven't even named yet. Your brain will atrophy. Do you want your competency to be correlated 1:1 to the quality and quantity of tokens you can afford (or be loaned!!)?
Their main purpose is to convince C-suite suits that they don't need you, or they should be justified in paying you less.This will of course backfire on them, but in the meantime, why give them the training data, why give them the revenue??
I'd bet anything these new models / agentic-tools are designed to optimize for token consumption. They need the revenue BADLY. These companies are valued at 200 X Revenue.. Google IPO'd at 10-11 x lmfao . Wtf are we even doing? Can't wait to watch it crash and burn :) Soon!
You're basically saying "There isnt anything inherently wrong about working for the 4th Reich"