Arnehuang

I was looking at the data on https://ossinsight.io/explore/?id=6c060cc1-83b4-43f7-be4a-a4....

I highlighted the US in the chart but across the board it seems something happened at the end of 2022, around August.

Wow thats incredible. How are you managing the 200 threads - are you using the api for that? Or just using their chat interface on chat.openai.com and scrolling to the relevant one to continue the converstaion

I think of it like this:

Suppose I want to make a decision about whether to hedge for a market crash right now. Statistics can tell me the likelihood of a crash, and how bad. But if the market crashes, and very badly, how might that affect my life? To make a good decision I would need to think of all the things that come with a market crash (job loss, savings loss). This is not statistics.

I could again use statistics to say what is the chance I lose my job given a market crash (say 70%). But then I would need to estimate the impact on my life should I lose my job (Stress, etc). This is not statistics. But it should very well factor into my ability to do back of the napkin math on whether I should hedge or not.

Is that statistics? I think of statistics as "given historical data, infer future data". But it seems like what you want is to know which decision is best, which involves many more things (like estimating the impact/utility of each outcome), that seems more like economics?