News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by wcummings on Monday August 03, 2015 @04:58PM (#9999758)
Interesting read, I love to see contrarian views on automation. I'm really tired of seeing poorly thought out rants from techno-prophets predicting unbounded exponential growth when economic growth is stagnating globally.
Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by refurb on Monday August 03, 2015 @07:02PM (#10000482)
when economic growth is stagnating globally

Huh?

The world's economy has grown by over 50% since 2000.[1]

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product

Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by TeMPOraL on Monday August 03, 2015 @05:49PM (#10000139)
There isn't going to be an unbounded exponential growth, and every techno-prophet knows it (as opposed to armchair economists) - if we keep basing our economy on endless growth, everything will go to hell when we hit the natural limits.
Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by georgeecollins on Tuesday August 04, 2015 @05:33PM (#10006419)
Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by TeMPOraL on Tuesday August 04, 2015 @05:37PM (#10006448)
It is, but some armchair proponents of market economy don't seem to have gotten the memo.
Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by netcan on Monday August 03, 2015 @05:54PM (#10000166)
What are the natural limits? Do you mean natural resources?
Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by TeMPOraL on Monday August 03, 2015 @06:00PM (#10000198)
Natural resources, Earth's capacity to sustain our growth, and later on, speed of light (unless we break the FTL, there's only so fast we can expand our economy). Every exponential growth in physical world (as opposed to mathematical theory) has a limit at some point.
Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by hebdo on Monday August 03, 2015 @05:59PM (#10000193)
Yes, for example. Any resource you can think of.

Be creative: unbounded exponential growth would mean, for instance, that at some point in the future the global yearly energy consumption would be higher than what E=mc^2 suggests for m=mass of the earth.

Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by nickff on Monday August 03, 2015 @06:10PM (#10000256)
You're implicitly assuming that all human energy consumption takes place on planet Earth.
Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by qu4z-2 on Monday August 03, 2015 @09:01PM (#10000999)
Or at least in the universe, which seems like a fair assumption for now.
Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by justonepost on Monday August 03, 2015 @05:46PM (#10000112)
Unbounded exponential growth is possible, but we have to redefine the rules of capitalism. For example, rewarding those who actually advance our economies versus those who just play with numbers in stock markets.
Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by hebdo on Monday August 03, 2015 @05:53PM (#10000163)
Given that any resouce you can think of is bounded, no, it is impossible.
Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by netcan on Monday August 03, 2015 @06:08PM (#10000240)
Bounded theoretically, yes. But the boundary can be so far away that it doesn't matter. Take energy. Oil & coal are certainly bounded, either by available deposits to mine or the environmental effects of burning them. But energy can come from solar, wind, nuclear and other sources. It's possible that 200 years from now, we'll have hit a wall on energy, but it's also possible that we'll have increased our energy consumption by orders of magnitude.

Other than that, I think it's hard to think of economic growth for periods longer than a few generations.

When economists say that a dollar in 2015 is worth $X in 1066 and we are Y% richer, that's a very leaky metaphor. It's basically saying that a sheep or a loaf of bread cost x in 1066 and people made z every day and if we take our daily salary and divide it by loaves of bread and sheep then we don't really have to consider that we buy ipods and toothpaste and they bought slaves and mutton. It's just nonsensical to try and represent it quantitatively.

So economic growth in the long term is hard to think about in numbers. Say a vaccine for cancer, alzheimer's & diabetes was invented tomorrow. You would be willing to pay money for that and glad of the opportunity. That's economic growth. The researchers uses lithium in their laptops and fossil fuel to keep the lights on, but still I don't think natural resources will bound this kind of thing.

Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by TeMPOraL on Monday August 03, 2015 @06:14PM (#10000279)
Keep in mind that we're talking about exponential growth which by definition means that in every step you consume more than in all of history combined. So today the boundary can be very far away, and it will stay so until suddenly you hit it and then act surprised. "Increasing our energy consumption by orders of magnitude" means that in 200 years we'll eat the sun, and in the next 200 years we'll swallow the galaxy (actually we won't, thanks to the speed of light limit, but I guess we'd be indistinguishable from a universe-destroying ever-expanding shockwave). We really do have to slow down at some point, exponential growth is not sustainable.

Also, the primary problem is not really the growth itself, but the need for it that is built into the basic assumptions of economy - because if and when we'll eventually hit a speedbump, everything will collapse.

Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by netcan on Monday August 03, 2015 @06:32PM (#10000359)
If we're talking so literally I can only go back to the definition of economic growth, with is squishy enough to avoid pesky physics.

Economic growth is a very theoretical concept. Something doubles our economic growth if we make it and people value it as much as the stuff we are already making. If we invented new Japanese cartoon cat pens so cute and desirable that every person on the planet pays $1000 for it, bam! 7.1 trillion dollar growth. Just remove 7 billion regular pens to make room in the universe, and we're at 7.0999. (assuming no resources were diverted from other things)

Economic growth is kind of meaningless to think about at this scale. But at any two points on a more human scale, it means something.

That said, an exponentially growing (shoe) economy that eats the universe sounds like a Douglas Adams story so maybe you're right.

Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by kaybe on Monday August 03, 2015 @06:52PM (#10000441)
I always think of the somewhat recent tech development. The things are getting more advanced (worth more?) compared to before, but do not need the same increase in ressources to produce. Most of what is added is one-off research.
Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by maxerickson on Monday August 03, 2015 @06:26PM (#10000336)
Exponential growth can be much smaller than that. For instance, 1% growth is exponential (as is 0.01% growth, and so on).

In the case of 1% growth the second interval is larger than the first, but the third is not larger than the first and second combined (it's still roughly 1/2 that).

Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by dllthomas on Monday August 03, 2015 @06:43PM (#10000395)
Exponential growth does mean that there exists some interval length over which the function doubles regardless of your point in the curve.

It's certainly true that it won't be true for all interval lengths - that is obviously mathematically nonsensical.

Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by AnimalMuppet on Monday August 03, 2015 @06:48PM (#10000422)
> that is obviously mathematically nonsensical.

In a finite universe, yes, it is clearly nonsense. Exponential growth cannot continue forever in a finite universe, no matter how small the growth constant.

Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by dllthomas on Monday August 03, 2015 @07:56PM (#10000750)
Your comment is unrelated to what I was discussing in the quoted section.

I was saying you can't have growth for which f(n + k) = 2 f(n) for all k > 0 (I believe the only solution to that is f(n) = 0, which isn't what anyone is talking about when they talk about "exponential growth"...). This point was intended, in contrast with what I'd just said about there existing some k - to stress the notion of when the interval is picked.

Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by AnimalMuppet on Tuesday August 04, 2015 @12:56PM (#10004621)
I know. I was agreeing with you. In fact, I was giving a proof that your position was correct.

Apparently, I wasn't doing it well, but that's what I was trying to do.

Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by dllthomas on Tuesday August 04, 2015 @02:38PM (#10005332)
I didn't think you were disagreeing with me - I think you were agreeing with something I didn't say. I was just speaking to definitions.

Whether unbounded exponential "economic growth" is possible in a finite universe is actually a significantly more involved question. It's obviously not possible if "economic value" is bounded, but in principle could be "possible" with finite stuff in continuous space (obviously, economic value depends significantly on configurations of stuff and not just amounts).

All of this is interesting, but I honestly don't expect any reasoning involving hard theoretic bounds to be of any use in determining what's likely over my lifetime, or those of my children.

Re:Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future ... by justonepost on Monday August 03, 2015 @06:06PM (#10000229)
If you want to define our economy and GDP in terms of consuming, yeah, we're screwed. I think there are more enlightened ways of looking at things. Like security, free time, good health, educated and artistic people, etc.