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Re:Atomic Bomb: Decision – Target Committee, May 10-11, 1945 by snori74 on Tuesday July 14, 2015 @02:22PM (#9886988)
Yes, that struck me too.

Turns out that the target for the second bomb was Kokura, and they did three bomb runs over it, but they then diverted to Nagasaki.[1]

Reading the report - with the rationale for each of those other targets - and then the story of the Kokura raid (which ended up hitting Nagasaki) makes it very dramatically obvious how "contingent" everthing is.

Edit: In fact Kokura, which I'd never heard of until today, got pretty lucky - as well as being the main target for what became the "Nagasaki bomb", they'd been the backup target for the first bomb

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_a...

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