Re:Greeks Reject Bailout Terms
by Symmetry on Sunday July 05, 2015 @06:52PM
(#9835429)
So, right now Greece is living beyond what it can sustain. To go forward Greece need to be both more productive and cut its standard of living somewhat. Unfortunately fixing this in a straightforward way is hard. You have a lot of confusion and bargaining around who has to experience pain and it probably won't be distributed evenly if left to itself. And because of sticky wages/nominal loss aversion efforts to reduce people's pay in nominal terms tends to cause unemployment[1] which means that the pain in even worse.
Enter inflation. It sucks, obviously, but it's a great way to spread the pain around evenly between workers, pensioners, and creditors. And it doesn't cause unemployment. It causes a bit of additional pain through things like menu costs but that's small potatoes compared to everything else happening.
Of course this is all presupposing a carefully calibrated monetary policy. It worked great for Iceland but I'm not sure I'd trust the current crop of Greek politicians not to give into the temptation to print themselves out of debt. That way lies hyperinflation.
EDIT: I tend to think it would be good if the Euro zone could be dissolved somehow and it would probably be good for Greece in the long term to leave. However, I'm not at all convinced that in practice the "no" vote will work out well for Greece or anybody else over the next decade or so.
Enter inflation. It sucks, obviously, but it's a great way to spread the pain around evenly between workers, pensioners, and creditors. And it doesn't cause unemployment. It causes a bit of additional pain through things like menu costs but that's small potatoes compared to everything else happening.
Of course this is all presupposing a carefully calibrated monetary policy. It worked great for Iceland but I'm not sure I'd trust the current crop of Greek politicians not to give into the temptation to print themselves out of debt. That way lies hyperinflation.
EDIT: I tend to think it would be good if the Euro zone could be dissolved somehow and it would probably be good for Greece in the long term to leave. However, I'm not at all convinced that in practice the "no" vote will work out well for Greece or anybody else over the next decade or so.
[1]http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2013/09/why_dont_wages.h...