Most of the 'problems' with microservices are in the operations phase, not typically in the development phase.
Do serious shops have phases for these things anymore? In my view a modern shop should be developing and releasing frequently, and that engineers should experience operational consequences of development choices.
So I guess I would say that any place not working like that might not be ready for a microservices approach.
Personally, I would start sooner than that. I think new technologies make service creation easier. But the right moment for me depends a lot on product, team, and tech.