I think the answer to your question is unequivocally yes. Information is too perfect in bitcoin mining it to diverge too far from its rational rate.
Calculating your (probable) return is trivial, and calculating your cost is trivial. Ergo calculating your profit is trivial.
Mining at a loss in anticipation of a price rise doesn't make sense. If you are mining in anticipation of a price rise and you have the finances to buy and support a mining rig, then you should just take that money and buy coins on the open market. The only people for whom mining at a loss makes sense are people who already have sunk costs in mining rigs.
The idea that the bitcoin market will, in aggregate, not realize this, is far-fetched at best.
Your second point relies on the assumption that Bitcoin is a closed system. Without people injecting value into the system, Bitcoins would be worth $0. So you are basically predicting that people will suddenly stop bringing money they earned elsewhere to support mining Bitcoin. This point also relies of the opposite of the old Keynes "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" quote. If we are waiting for people to go broke to keep the market rational, how long will that take and will the market be able to endure however long it is?