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A comment on Bayes’ Theorem – What is it and what is it good for?. Parent comment

Re:Bayes’ Theorem – What is it and what is it good for? by dimino on Friday June 26, 2015 @11:29AM (#9785169)
I don't think it's as rigorously defined as it's purported to be. I just envision the practical application of manipulating values to produce desired results, and then post-hoc rationalizing those value manipulations to obtain a higer-than-warranted level of confidence in the result, because, "I applied rigor!"
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Re:Bayes’ Theorem – What is it and what is it good for? by darkxanthos on Friday June 26, 2015 @11:54AM (#9785450)
The math is well defined and rigorous not every analysis that uses it. I think you're conflating those two things.
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Re:Bayes’ Theorem – What is it and what is it good for? by davidgerard on Friday June 26, 2015 @12:21PM (#9785704)
He's talking about the practical effects of fallible humans using the version of Bayes advocated in the original post (citing Yudkowsky and Muehlhauser).

Pulling numbers out of your backside and running them through a process makes you more confident than just pulling them out of your backside directly, but I've yet to see evidence it does more than increasing your confidence.

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Re:Bayes’ Theorem – What is it and what is it good for? by dimino on Friday June 26, 2015 @01:07PM (#9786137)
Oh yes, I wouldn't question the math -- it's well beyond my expertise, and I've heard of way too many implementations of the theory to refute it at a theoretical level.
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