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A comment on IPv4 Depletion. Parent comment

Re:IPv4 Depletion by tedunangst on Thursday June 25, 2015 @08:31PM (#9781814)
None of which makes me care. From the beginning, the relevant question has been, when will I be unable to get an IP? And every time the answer is "real soon now". Yet the price of an extra IP on linode (for one example) has not budged from $1/month. You'll understand if this doesn't inspire much concern.

For the record, I make the same complaint every time. Always the same response. "Those were warning signs, but now the end is nigh!"

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Re:IPv4 Depletion by zaroth on Friday June 26, 2015 @02:00AM (#9782706)
When you think of the size of the IPv4 space, you realize that $1/mo for an IP is by far the most profitable add-on they sell.

4.3 billion IPs x $12 per year = $51 billion. If the average cost to actually hold an IPv4 address was even $0.10/month, we would not be talking about IPv4 exhaustion.

My point is, as long as you're willing to spend $12/year just for the IP address, there will be a long line of people happy to sell one to you. But $1 per month for a routable address is at least two orders of magnitude more expensive than network architects are aiming for.

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Re:IPv4 Depletion by ay on Friday June 26, 2015 @04:11PM (#9787442)
Exactly. And as the home speeds reach 1Gbps to the home, there will not be enough CGN boxes that will be able to sustain that load, so one of the two options:

1) more stateless mechanisms will be used (lw4o6, MAP) - which do not give the entire IPv4 address to residential users => so even if the service has an IPv4 address, the clients might have to go through the hurdles to get to it.

Service providers are planning to go IPv6-only, and content providers already note that IPv6 gives a double-digit performance increase compared to IPv4 [1]

2) The residential ISPs will debundle the IPv4 from the cost - given that a lot of the sites average consumer needs (google, facebook, youtube, netflix) are already IPv6-enabled. For this case, you will not be even able to see that something is "wrong". Just the users will click on the link, see it's not reachable, say "huh?" and move on.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfjdOc41g0s - 1h12 well spent.

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Re:IPv4 Depletion by ay on Friday June 26, 2015 @04:19PM (#9787476)
There will be no abrupt end. Just the price per IP will slowly grow, and the usefulness of this IP will slowly fade.

There's no panic. The trick with IPv6 deployment is predicting two years in advance the moment will you need IPv6 "tomorrow" - because for a lot of orgs that's how long it takes.

I'll repost a link from the recent NANOG meeting here about the folks seriously discussing their plans of going IPv6-only:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfjdOc41g0s

By the way, if you're reading this from a smartphone in the US, try this link: http://test-ipv6.com/

I thoroughly enjoyed the moment when one networking pro (who dealt with IPv6 20 years ago and not since) was telling me he won't have IPv6 till he retires, realized he had his on his LTE connection and was using it for quite some time already! :-)

I repeat myself from another post:

One out of five users hitting google.com and facebook.com in the US today does so over IPv6.

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Re:IPv4 Depletion by profmonocle on Saturday June 27, 2015 @08:16PM (#9791938)
> From the beginning, the relevant question has been, when will I be unable to get an IP? And every time the answer is "real soon now".

It's going to be a long time before you can't get an IPv4 address at all. But what is going to happen over time is the cost of an IPv4 address is going to go up, since demand will increase, but supply won't.

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