Re:Science, Now Under Scrutiny Itself
by imh on Wednesday June 17, 2015 @07:43PM
(#9735959)
You only need to know how the experiment was performed, same as you do for bayes. If they present the whole dataset, nothing is changed. If they cherrypick and only show the data for the coin that happened to be all heads saying that was their whole experiment, no amount of stats will help you, bayesian or otherwise.
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No, if the coins are independent, the Bayesian is not fooled even when seeing only that coin. The argument was in my post above.
The inference in Bayes only depends on the data, and the flips of other coins doesn't make a difference if independent. Frequentist testing can depend on things like stopping rules and hypothesis tested, which aren't correlated to the actual truth and therefore should have zero effect on inference.
They can cherry pick and only show some flips of that coin, but then they really need to be outright lying or you'll ask why only some flips were reported.