I don't think we're disagreeing on much. Yes, of course, a startup with better connections in the US has a better chance to get funding from US investors, and it's easier for an US startup to make these connections.

My point is that P(Canada/foreign startup getting funding) is greater than zero even with today's visa situation, and is still large enough to make a visa program worthwhile, even if it is smaller than P(Silicon Valley startup getting funding).