Well, where does he draw the line? Will he claim success when a prediction comes true, but ten years late? 15? What is the definition of a failed prediction, according to Ray Kurzweil?

Here's a scenario: It's 2028, and my doctor says I'm in the early stages of Alzheimers. Do I sell everything and try to knock items off my bucket list, or do I keep working like everything's normal and wait for the advent of nanobots? If Kurzweil had a model (other than a linear regression, please) I could at least make some educated guesses. But he's basically just a science fiction author who has decided to tack years onto his stories. I don't know what I'm supposed to do with that.