"few elements can be modeled perfectly by human beings." "Our models of the world have gotten better — which means that our ability to predict the world has gotten better." Paraphrasing: "My friend knows more topics in greater depth than I do, but I think his opinions on metacognitive strategies as applied to things he knows about are naive."

For someone who is trying very hard to spew a bunch of Bayesian tribal signals, the author appears unduly confident in his mastery of that art.