Re:Your body wasn’t built to last: a lesson from human morta...
by dsugarman on Tuesday April 21, 2015 @01:33PM
(#9415638)
> Shown above are the results from a simulated world where “lightning bolts” of misfortune hit people on average every 16 years, and death occurs at the fifth hit.
I think that graph would look almost perfect if the decay was exponential rather than linear. A better hypothesis would be every time you are hit by a lightning bolt, you are twice as likely to be restruck every year. So if you are hit and it was a 1/40 chance, next year would be a 1/20 chance until you are hit 5 times.
I think that graph would look almost perfect if the decay was exponential rather than linear. A better hypothesis would be every time you are hit by a lightning bolt, you are twice as likely to be restruck every year. So if you are hit and it was a 1/40 chance, next year would be a 1/20 chance until you are hit 5 times.