1) I suggest that actually the largest-grossing games will be things that run inside of some sort of trusted computing-y system. Right now, the 360 and PS3 fill that role, especially the 360, with its really-pretty-good internal verification systems. I suppose Steam could turn into a setup like that as well. I note MS also pushes the server-side hard, like you suggest, and I agree this has added significant value to their games,making offline play less appealing.

2) Agreed completely, this is happening now, a-la D&D Online. As companies figure out how to forecast revenues from such things, we'll be seeing a lot of this. And, frankly, I think a lot of us won't mind. I kind of like pay-as-you go, personally. It lets me choose how much to spend on the game.

p.s. I love my Kindle.