Re:The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment
by Terr_ on Tuesday February 03, 2015 @02:11PM
(#8992516)
I think it's the difference between "This is intrinsically misleading" versus "People who want to mislead you may use this when they try".
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Re:The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment
by niels_olson on Tuesday February 03, 2015 @02:56PM
(#8992866)
> This is intrinsically misleading
Exactly. Reporting the same number over time sounds very serious and correct, unless the nature of the market itself is what changed. In which case the reporting may totally miss the real event worth reporting. That said, the conversation here is rich in part because at least people are aware that the underlying market may have changed.
> Exactly.
Wait... exactly what? I'm confused because the "quote" you're using from my post is (ironically?) deeply misleading.
Re:The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment
by niels_olson on Tuesday February 03, 2015 @09:16PM
(#8994947)
Reporting U3, or any other number, as "the unemployment rate" is intrinsically misleading if the underlying reality has changed. The system under discussion is not a physical system that we are discovering, it's an economic system that we are constantly manipulating. Frequently, the system is manipulated specifically to push one number or another in a politically desirable direction. This makes the reporting of any given number potentially "intrinsically misleading".
By contrast "People who want to mislead you" may try to use this number, but even their attempts are undermined by changes in the underlying dynamics.