Re:New Weather Service supercomputer faces chaos
by zackangelo on Sunday February 01, 2015 @11:42AM
(#8980564)
Discretizing your domain into a grid doesn't necessarily imply you're solving the problem in question using cellular automata. I'm not familiar with the specifics of GFS, but it's common to model physical phenomena using the finite difference method.
It's newsworthy and interesting because they're running the same exact model on two different computers and it's yielding wildly divergent results. It'd be as if you took the same CA rules with the same initial state and it ran differently on two different computers.
It's tricky because these discrepancies are probably due to subtle differences like the way the new CPUs are handling the floating point calculations.
More counter-intuitiveness follows. The more complicated you make the model, oddly enough, the less likely it is to be stable. (I'm looking at you, weather model)
I suspect that differences are random so that on average they are performing statistically about the same.
Oddly enough, nope! Nice try, though. The rate of divergence is unpredictable and not guaranteed to average out to anything. In fact, that's the definition of chaotic. Unless you've discovered an attractor, you just have unpredictable noise. Add that with CA and you have systems that diverge in various ways at various rates. Sure if you're sample size was huge, it'd probably all work out. But 2-3 or even a few dozen? Not so much.