Re:The Man Who Knows Whether Any Startup Will Live or Die
by sickpig on Friday January 30, 2015 @09:10AM
(#8972047)
I stand corrected, you're right. I'm supposed to know better.
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Re:The Man Who Knows Whether Any Startup Will Live or Die
by jgeralnik on Friday January 30, 2015 @10:33AM
(#8972470)
Nope, you're still right.
Assume startups fail 90% of the time. 50% of the time your coin comes up tails, and you claim the startup will fail. 50% of the time your coin comes up heads and you claim the startup will succeed.
You guess correctly 0.5 (the chance your coin comes up tails) * 0.9 (the chance the startup fails) + 0.5 (heads) * 0.1 (success) = 0.5 of the time.