My major concern about the push for higher enrollment is that specifically with universities, the percentage that drop out and don't re-enter higher education, about 1/4 of all initial applicants, will on average earn less than high-school drop outs meaning that a sizeable proportion of these drop outs remain unemployed.

It's disturbing that all statistics appear to be gathered after completion and not after enrolment, because the value of universities would drop drastically if people realised that 1/2 of entrants typically fail or drop out, and that half of those (1/4 of initial enrollers) will earn less than high school drop outs, which means that the average ~$3,000 extra earned for a true university graduation over a typical college graduation would all but vanish. Especially when factoring in that a college drop out earns more than a high school drop out, not less like a university graduate.

Essentially College is always good for your income, however university can be truly devastating for 1-in-4 people.

That's interesting stuff. What's the source?

Also I apologize for my ignorance here but what's the distinction in this context between a university and a college? Is it still research vs. not-so-much?

I read all the statistics when I was applying to university a few years back, it was my high-school careers councillor who actually pointed it out to me. All the open-statistics give the percentages for university drop out rates (they all seem similar throughout the UK, Canada and Australia and many parts of Europe where I've read the statistics). The incomes I've actually only seen for the US, Canada and the UK, which all seem to correlate reasonably well, however nothing offers a reason for the unemployment of university drop outs.

In this context I believe the distinction is between a technical college (1-3 year programs for certifications and diplomas) and a degree-orientated/undergraduate university, where the courses typically grant a bachelors degree instead of certification or a diploma.

I have to note the UK's statistics on this front are very confusing, as there is no physical distinction between a technical college and a university as there is in North America and is based off of course-outcome aims rather than actual institutions attended.

Canada's statistics are rather interesting on university drop outs, in that the Atlantic Provinces have phenomenally low first-year drop out rates (I believe P.E.I. is ~16% versus ~36% in Ontario, note that these don't include first-year failure percentages). So it truly isn't the institution itself that causes the failure, but an artefact of the process present in most schools.

Before advocating any countermeasures, you need to control for the self-selection of university vs. college students.

I would rather study CS at a 4 year uni than at a CS-specific 2 year uni. Why? Because at a 4 year uni, you are surrounded by people different from you. Your get to expand your world view.