Thank you.

We must assume that the FBI is a rational and intelligent adversary (even if we have a difference of opinion on specific public decisions or press releases that impact our perception of their intelligence).

They're not going to expend the resources (or, as The Grugq might say, burn a valuable capability) to compromise a server when they already had a man on the inside (Cirrus).

I would be willing to accept that it's possible they were on a dragnet fishing expedition around the same time to see what they could sweep up, and they just happened to use this information to confirm the efficacy of their Tor attack. This would also explain Doxbin going down, but so would Doxbin and another target of theirs being on the same bare metal server.

> At first glance, it's an awfully big coincidence to write off, but there are mitigating factors.

Agreed. Given what is already public knowledge, it's far from the most likely explanation.