Re:What the Swiss Franc Appreciation Means
by adam419 on Sunday January 18, 2015 @06:16PM
(#8909393)
You're missing the point of a black swan. An event is a black swan to the Turkey, not the Butcher.
How do you know that you should listen to Mike on this but not the things he said that turned out to be wrong (seemingly more than half lately)?
https://www.backrecord.com/person/mike-shedlock-(globalecono...
Re:What the Swiss Franc Appreciation Means
by Mvandenbergh on Monday January 19, 2015 @09:04AM
(#8911934)
It doesn't even have to be predicted to not be a black swan. To qualify it has to be so far outside the range of events accepted as likely that it breaks models used to mitigate risk. This was nothing like that.
A 20% move in a cross between two free floating currencies probably would qualify because the only things that would cause it are catastrophic events (themselves black swans).
A 20% swing after a peg is dropped is exactly the kind of thing that a model would predict, therefore this could only be a black swan if the peg being dropped was absolutely unthinkable which it obviously wasn't.
Genuine question then. If you had money to burn (I.e. gamble) where would be the smart place to put it over the short to medium term, and see a tidy return?
not somewhere someone in internet comments told you to put it
It's not a black swan event if it was predicted, widely, well in advance. Smart, reasonable people declared the policy unsustainable from day one. One good example being Mike Shedlock at globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.