How Likely Is Someone Accused of Assault by Multiple People to Be Innocent?

Re:How Likely Is Someone Accused of Assault by Multiple Peop... by logicallee on Tuesday December 23, 2014 @04:38PM (#8790369)

The comparison with witch trials is simple. People can be totally independent, and not know each other, and independently conclude that you're a witch. Why would they do this? Obviously due to some factor about you. The mistake you make is using Occam's razor to conclude that that factor is "being a witch". The other poster used the example of witches because we all know there is no such thing.

There is 0% chance of someone being a witch, whom nobody has ever so much as suspected of being a witch. But there is also 0% of someone being a witch, about whom dozens of totally independent people, in different locations, throughout the person's life and career, have independently come to the firm and undeniable conclusion that they are a witch.

This is why this was the example that was used.

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Re:How Likely Is Someone Accused of Assault by Multiple Peop... by darkhorn on Tuesday December 23, 2014 @05:24PM (#8790561)

Everyone says that [put some religion here] is true. All these people can't be wrong, can they be? Therefore this religion is true. Applies not only to religion but also to heating home, sickness, astrology, cutting penices of children etc.

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Re:How Likely Is Someone Accused of Assault by Multiple Peop... by logicallee on Tuesday December 23, 2014 @05:36PM (#8790612)

Not bad :) Author should post "How likely is someone to be the son of God based on number of disciples?" and we can see where 12 fits in.

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