Re:Windows 7, Windows 8, Windows 9
by mechanical_fish on Sunday October 11, 2009 @12:18PM
(#874835)
this is an exponential change in address space, not a linear one
To be fair, Moore's Law describes an exponential change in usable address space that we're still living through.
The numbers are kind of spooky. The stupidest statement of Moore's Law is "everything doubles in size, at constant cost, every 18 months." If we take that statement literally, and also assume that the reaching of the "32-bit memory wall" became a widespread phenomenon around, say, 2009 [1], a backwards extrapolation suggests that the RAM industry should have begun in 1961 with a single byte. This is frighteningly close to agreeing with actual history. [2]
The implication is that another 32 bits only buys us another 48 years. After that we'll need a 128-bit address space in order to properly index our personal catalogues of everything ever. [3]
Or, perhaps, at some point we will just get tired of making RAM.
---
[1] This is when I first noticed it. Yeah, people with millions of dollars hit this wall in 1990. Must have been nice to be them.
You will note a certain degree of slight-of-hand in my numerology here. ;)
[2] Intel's first memory product was a 64-bit unit in 1969. In the fantasy modpunk universe where Moore's Law was operating during the Sixties, that would imply a starting point of a single bit in 1960.
If we reject my narcissistic assertion that nobody important cared about the 32-bit memory wall until this year, and instead accept oomkiller's assertion that the 32-bit memory wall first appeared on the radar around 1990, that would push back the birthday of the first bit to around 1941. I give you Wikipedia:
The [Zuse] Z3 (1941) was the first working machine featuring binary arithmetic, including floating point arithmetic and a measure of programmability. In 1998 the Z3 was proved to be Turing complete, therefore being the world's first operational computer.
Cue the Twilight Zone theme.
[3] We probably won't need that 256-bit address space in 100 years, since there are estimated to be only 2^266 atoms in the observable universe.
Re:Windows 7, Windows 8, Windows 9
by likpok on Sunday October 11, 2009 @01:59PM
(#874989)
Exponential growth is unsustainable. In a universe where the infinite does not exist (either big or small), we are strictly bounded by things. At some point Moore's law will show it's true colors (a logistic curve) and taper off.
To be fair, Moore's Law describes an exponential change in usable address space that we're still living through.
The numbers are kind of spooky. The stupidest statement of Moore's Law is "everything doubles in size, at constant cost, every 18 months." If we take that statement literally, and also assume that the reaching of the "32-bit memory wall" became a widespread phenomenon around, say, 2009 [1], a backwards extrapolation suggests that the RAM industry should have begun in 1961 with a single byte. This is frighteningly close to agreeing with actual history. [2]
The implication is that another 32 bits only buys us another 48 years. After that we'll need a 128-bit address space in order to properly index our personal catalogues of everything ever. [3]
Or, perhaps, at some point we will just get tired of making RAM.
---
[1] This is when I first noticed it. Yeah, people with millions of dollars hit this wall in 1990. Must have been nice to be them.
You will note a certain degree of slight-of-hand in my numerology here. ;)
[2] Intel's first memory product was a 64-bit unit in 1969. In the fantasy modpunk universe where Moore's Law was operating during the Sixties, that would imply a starting point of a single bit in 1960.
If we reject my narcissistic assertion that nobody important cared about the 32-bit memory wall until this year, and instead accept oomkiller's assertion that the 32-bit memory wall first appeared on the radar around 1990, that would push back the birthday of the first bit to around 1941. I give you Wikipedia:
The [Zuse] Z3 (1941) was the first working machine featuring binary arithmetic, including floating point arithmetic and a measure of programmability. In 1998 the Z3 was proved to be Turing complete, therefore being the world's first operational computer.
Cue the Twilight Zone theme.
[3] We probably won't need that 256-bit address space in 100 years, since there are estimated to be only 2^266 atoms in the observable universe.