Re:Ask HN: Single founder startups: real data and experiences?
by api on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @02:31PM
(#8725065)
Sure. I'll drop you a line.
The growth pattern is weird -- in kind of a good way -- and is definitely real as confirmed by admin panel signups, paid conversions, etc. mirroring and confirming it. Those are also pretty solid stable percentages of the overall count.
Web visits follow a much more rocky pattern but if you smooth out the noise you get a rough echo of the 1.4% connected devices growth rate for recurring visits, which make sense and further confirms its reality.
I've just never seen a growth rate so consistent and deterministic. You can hold the edge of a piece of paper under a log(Y) scale graph of "devices online" and the line is straight. Apparently in ten years I will have a device online for every atom in the solar system. /lulz
Granted I've been focusing on bug fixes, software improvements, and working with select customers, so I haven't done much to update the web site or optimize for viral growth. This is very much a "hands off" organic rate. It'll be interesting to see how it responds if I do change things up a bit. The smoothness of it will make any kind of A/B testing a breeze... any change should jump right out and smack me in the face. :)
The growth pattern is weird -- in kind of a good way -- and is definitely real as confirmed by admin panel signups, paid conversions, etc. mirroring and confirming it. Those are also pretty solid stable percentages of the overall count.
Web visits follow a much more rocky pattern but if you smooth out the noise you get a rough echo of the 1.4% connected devices growth rate for recurring visits, which make sense and further confirms its reality.
I've just never seen a growth rate so consistent and deterministic. You can hold the edge of a piece of paper under a log(Y) scale graph of "devices online" and the line is straight. Apparently in ten years I will have a device online for every atom in the solar system. /lulz
Granted I've been focusing on bug fixes, software improvements, and working with select customers, so I haven't done much to update the web site or optimize for viral growth. This is very much a "hands off" organic rate. It'll be interesting to see how it responds if I do change things up a bit. The smoothness of it will make any kind of A/B testing a breeze... any change should jump right out and smack me in the face. :)