NASA: We're sending humans to Mars

Re:NASA: We're sending humans to Mars by keypusher on Tuesday December 02, 2014 @03:34PM (#8689681)

In some way the assumption that the private sector can do it better is supported by NASA itself, it's why they have contracted missions to the ISS out to SpaceX and Orbital Sciences, who have managed to successfully fill those contracts for $500 million (less money than NASA was spending on a single space shuttle launch). I have tremendous respect for the work NASA has done, but there are deep flaws at the agency, and they realize it as much as everyone else does.

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Re:NASA: We're sending humans to Mars by kevinbache on Tuesday December 02, 2014 @04:07PM (#8689907)

NASA says their average space shuttle launch cost was $450 million.

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+much+does+one+space+shut...

edit: forgot the "million"

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Re:NASA: We're sending humans to Mars by keypusher on Tuesday December 02, 2014 @06:21PM (#8690788)

I should have been more clear. $500 million was the cost for the entire commercial contracts program, as someone else pointed out below that is ~$150 million per launch. Whether NASA spent $450 or $500 million on a shuttle launch is somewhat irrelevant, either way it is far more than the cost of private missions performing the same service.

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Re:NASA: We're sending humans to Mars by iwwr on Tuesday December 02, 2014 @06:28PM (#8690823)

The Shuttle was originally an Air Force partnership where NASA was supposed to also launch the USAF's payloads, including spy satellites and the like. The 20-ton payload created major compromises as far as reusability and then the USAF wasn't interested once the thing was built.

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Re:NASA: We're sending humans to Mars by kllrnohj on Wednesday December 03, 2014 @11:47AM (#8694733)

1 shuttle launch: $450M (reality) 7 people 53,600lb to LEO

1 SpaceX dragon launch (ignoring for a second that it doesn't exist yet): $160M (target) 7 people 7,300LB to LEO

So even if the Dragon V2 comes in at its targetted price and capacities (and all historical evidence says it very much will not do that), it'll take 7 launches of it to match the payload of a single Shuttle launch. Doing some quick math here... 7 * $160M is... a hell of a lot more than $450M

So pound for pound the shuttle is half the cost of the Dragon V2's estimated price.

And in terms of actually mission profiles take something like STS-31, the Hubble launch. Payload mass there was 26,187lbs. Assuming that weight could somehow be split perfectly into 7,300 chunks and assembled in space that's still 4 launches on the Dragon V2, or $640M.

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Re:NASA: We're sending humans to Mars by seanflyon on Wednesday December 03, 2014 @07:00PM (#8697119)

It is not fair to compare the heavy lift capabilities of the Dragon to those of the space shuttle. The fact that the Space Shuttle does both heavy lift and crew transport means that whenever you want one, you also have to pay for the other. Of course you would not use the Dragon to launch the Hubble.

A fair comparison would be 1 Dragon launch and 1 Falcon Heavy launch which leave quite a bit of room for cost overruns before they surpass the cost of a shuttle launch while delivering twice the payload and the same number of people.

Lastly the total cost of the Space Shuttle program divided by number of launches gives us a cost of $1.5 billion per launch (2008 dollars), according to Wikipedia. While NASA lists the launch cost as $450 million, that does not include the majority of the cost of the program. NASA paid a comparatively small sum ($270 million) for SpaceX to develop the Dragon (Even if there was a second contract that I am unaware of, the cost still cannot approach that of the Space Shuttle).

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Re:NASA: We're sending humans to Mars by Shivetya on Tuesday December 02, 2014 @05:21PM (#8690388)

the flaw starts that there 535 people who can tell NASA what do to, mostly indirectly but some are able to do it directly. None work at NASA.

This is of course the problem with the DOD as well, when the people tasked to do a job have to take into account the whims of politicians just how do we honestly expect it to be a job done well.

Of course this does happen in private industry as well, there is much ado about not rocking the boat, going with the flow etc, usually masked as some faddish project management system; only a moron wouldn't do proper project management, right?

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Re:NASA: We're sending humans to Mars by lutorm on Tuesday December 02, 2014 @04:48PM (#8690168)

Where did you get the idea that a SpaceX launch costs $500 million? The entire Commercial Cargo development contract with SpaceX was $400 million. The subsequent commerical resupply service contract is for 12 missions for $1.6 billion. If you spread the development cost over all those flights, it comes out to be ~$150 million per launch. (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX#Commercial_cargo_contrac...)

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Re:NASA: We're sending humans to Mars by seanflyon on Tuesday December 02, 2014 @05:32PM (#8690469)

I think you misread the previous comment. It was referring to $500 million for a contract that included many launches. I agree that it could have been more clearly stated.

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