I happen to disagree with his analysis, however, because he's not taking non-government entities like SpaceX into account.
As a side note. I'm willing to bet they will be the first (with collaboration between the other space agencies as they often do).
Edit: Plus, I don't know of any other deep space crew carrier that currently exists. It sounds to me like they have a head start since they already have one in their possession, albeit untested.
i.e. non-NASA entities have a better chance than NASA
Edit: I see he has other replies that clarify that this is exactly what he's thinking. "I'm fairly confident that I'll see humans on Mars before I die. I just don't believe NASA will be behind the effort." I still maintain that this is not indicated in the original comment, but that starts to become unimportant.