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Re:The end of AI winter? by lliiffee on Thursday October 01, 2009 @05:16PM (#855846)
> From an outside perspective it seems the "God of the gaps" argument - AI is what AI researchers haven't done yet - is used as a smokescreen to cover up that AI research hasn't really done much in the last 30 years.

Here is what you don't understand: There are very, very, very few people who do research on "AI". People research medical diagnosis, or search, or data mining, or speech recognition, or vision, or chess. If you go to a conference on AI, these are the people you will meet. If you look at who the NSF is funding with their "robust intelligence" area, these are the people you will find. You can only say that "AI research hasn't done much in the last 30 years" if you also say "no one has worked on AI in the last 30 years".

update: if you want to see what people in the mainstream (Kurzweil is not mainstream!) are actually working on, try browsing the IJCAI proceedings:

http://ijcai.org/papers09/contents.php

Re:The end of AI winter? by WilliamLP on Thursday October 01, 2009 @05:37PM (#855883)
The trouble with that argument is that if you'd have asked anyone (anyone!), in any AI related field in 1980, where AI would be in thirty years what would they have said?

Surely not "Well, for instance one of the greatest achievements might be that we will work on chess algorithms, and we will see some incremental improvements resulting from tweaking certain heuristics and more intelligent pruning through more specialized algorithms and hardcoded chess knowledge. The programs still won't be able to learn in any interesting sense, but with the help of several orders of magnitude of hardware speed, they will be 200 ELO stronger than the best human!"

Re:The end of AI winter? by lliiffee on Thursday October 01, 2009 @05:58PM (#855933)
My point is that there IS no serious "pure" AI research these days. Your image of lots of pure AI researchers wasting their time is a fantasy-- those people don't exist. People work on applications.
Re:The end of AI winter? by yummyfajitas on Thursday October 01, 2009 @09:50PM (#856268)
"Those people don't exist" is a bit of an exaggeration. Eliezer Yudkowsky exists, for example.

http://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=eyudkowsky

His research is in making AGI (artificial general intelligence) not go skynet by building in morals. That seems fairly pure to me.

Re:The end of AI winter? by endtime on Friday October 02, 2009 @12:37AM (#856453)
Yes, "Those people don't exist" isn't technically correct; perhaps it should have been "Those people don't exist in significant numbers."

The point is that people who call themselves AI researches, the vast majority of the time are not working on AGI but on weak AI.

Re:The end of AI winter? by chime on Thursday October 01, 2009 @07:36PM (#856084)
And yet there are numerous people who work on pure math and theoretical physics.
Re:The end of AI winter? by Tichy on Friday October 02, 2009 @07:05AM (#856756)
The DARPA car racing thing seems to be a breakthrough. Granted, 30 years ago people would have expected more. But it is more than just a chess algorithm.
Re:The end of AI winter? by borism on Friday October 02, 2009 @10:23AM (#857060)
DARPA Grand Challenge? How's that a breakthrough in AI? Sure, it's uses a lot of results of "AI" research, but there's nothing revolutionary about that.
Re:The end of AI winter? by Tichy on Friday October 02, 2009 @10:42AM (#857094)
My understanding is that they made a big leap during the challenge - from catastrophic performance in the first run, to several successful drivers in the second run.

Revolutionary or not, I don't think it was trivial to make an autonomous vehicle.

Re:The end of AI winter? by abossy on Friday October 02, 2009 @03:39AM (#856609)
We have cars that drive themselves!
Re:The end of AI winter? by berntb on Thursday October 01, 2009 @05:45PM (#855898)
>>if you'd have asked anyone (anyone!), in any AI related field in 1980, where AI would be in thirty years what would they have said?

Uhm, Hans Moravec isn't exactly "anyone". :-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox

Edit: To be clear, Moravec shows that you misrepresent the AI field of that time. But sure, he wasn't the mainstream.