I think you're spot on here. And reading `tn13's comment [0], I think it's clear their goal is to produce real, tangible value with their space program. There's an enormous amount of waste in developing an industry, and I would just as soon write off a Mars mission as part of that. (After all, if you want credibility for your satellite launch operations, safely hitting Mars is a pretty good indicator!)

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8364792