I had a similar thought; seems that he should bucket at least by remaining yards to get the first down as well as field position. Imagine an 8-yard pass completion after a 1st and ten: many teams will attempt a deep pass, hoping to pick up the first down with a short play in case of an incompletion. That deep pass is a very different play and probably has a different completion likelihood.
Likewise, consider passes from your own 20 vs their 20 (that is, 80 yards of field left before the end zone vs 20): my intuition says that the latter pass has lower likelihood of completion, because the field is shorter and the defenders have less ground to cover.
So, it might actually be that "rhythm" exists, but only in long field positions or only on long drives.
I had a similar thought; seems that he should bucket at least by remaining yards to get the first down as well as field position. Imagine an 8-yard pass completion after a 1st and ten: many teams will attempt a deep pass, hoping to pick up the first down with a short play in case of an incompletion. That deep pass is a very different play and probably has a different completion likelihood.
Likewise, consider passes from your own 20 vs their 20 (that is, 80 yards of field left before the end zone vs 20): my intuition says that the latter pass has lower likelihood of completion, because the field is shorter and the defenders have less ground to cover.
So, it might actually be that "rhythm" exists, but only in long field positions or only on long drives.