Russian economy is not based on natural resources, actually. Russia was industrialized in 3 waves (development of mountain manufacturing civilization in Urals in XVII-XVIII, in 1870-1913 and finally by Stalin) long time ago and now has visible post-industrial sector (8.5% of GNP is generated by Internet and IT companies). The patterns that apply to dictatorships of banana republics here don't work: it will not be able to replace import of iPhones, but it is capable of replacing the western technologies that are blocked by sanctions. It can sustain any sanctions by manufacturing luxury goods for elites and providing food and fun for ordinary people. Upper middle class in Moscow will suffer, of course, from the lack of iPhones, but they are hated by the rest of the country, anyway, so who cares.

The only way to push democracy to such a big and advanced country is to increase cultural exchange, encouraging tourism and supporting Russian education system.