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A comment on SpaceX Soft Lands Falcon 9 Rocket First Stage. Parent comment

Re:SpaceX Soft Lands Falcon 9 Rocket First Stage by Retric on Tuesday July 22, 2014 @07:24PM (#8072144)
The initial assumption was 40 missions a year. Based on the estimated risks you might get 100 missions from a shuttle on average. So 5 orbitors * 100 / 40 = 12.5 years or ~ 10 years with an early loss. They where in service for 30 years and averaged 4.5 missions per year.

For comparison compare the matence cycle a low mileage 0 to 10 year old car vs a low mileage 15 to 30 year old car.

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Re:SpaceX Soft Lands Falcon 9 Rocket First Stage by nickff on Wednesday July 23, 2014 @02:05AM (#8073114)
I've heard this reasoning before (from NASA personnel), but I have never seen the reasoning behind it. Many of the design life requirements were impossible to meet to begin with, such as the 50-launch design life of the Space Shuttle main engines (because of the high chamber pressures, and problems with bearings). If you have some evidence of the veracity of this claim, I would be very interested to read it.
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