Seems like you're moving the goal posts. I acknowledged luck in the equation, but how the sale happens has a lot to do with the founders, that is the people you decided to fall in with. Again, it's different from a lottery ticket because you can have knowledge about the founders, their track record and there modus operandi. The average first time startup employee might not have a clue, but that doesn't mean it's impossible to gain good insight that you can apply in your decision to join as an employee.