Re:How to gamble if you must – the mathematics of optimal st...
by logicallee on Wednesday June 25, 2014 @05:51AM
(#7942997)
Re:How to gamble if you must – the mathematics of optimal st...
by chacham15 on Wednesday June 25, 2014 @01:20PM
(#7945381)
Your "base case" is correct, no argument there and so is your secondary example. The error comes in by looking at specifics instead of the whole. The probability of success using a strategy is the sum of (the probability of success in a case multiplied by the probability of that case) for every case. Now, since the set of integers is infinite, the sum probability of having the first number you see be less than one googleplex if the number is chosen completely at random is 0 (not just "really small" like 1/2^googleplex, so small that it is zero in the sense that lim(x->inf)1googleplex/x IS zero). Therefore the chance that you will get numbers which will lead you to have a probability over 50% is 0.
In conclusion, the point is that this method doesnt work in all, or even most cases; only in cases in which you KNOW that larger numbers are less likely to be chosen than small numbers. Furthermore, how much better than 50% you can do depends completely on how well your approximation function (the gaussian function or flipping coins) accurately reflects the smaller probability of larger numbers. Now if you want to deal with people, the number of ways in which people generate random numbers is so large that I am hard pressed to believe that you can find an accurate enough approximation function that will work across the population. For example, try playing this game with your 12 year old nephew who just learned about million, billion, and googleplex and you are likely to do no better than 50%.