Of course! There are professional poker players who run bad for months at a time even. Variance is a cruel mistress. That doesn't negate the fact that talent certainly gives you an edge in poker or in the startup world. It's easy to say it's all luck, but that attitude doesn't pay service to the many successful people who had raw talent or an excellent idea in addition to the luck that allowed them to become successful.

Call me cynical, but to me it feels like the people working on the startup are the cards of the game, being played by the VCs and the status quo.

Depends on the point in the funding cycle. I'm not sure this applied during the dotcom bubble. Most of them got wiped out.