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Re:Data mining Reddit posts reveals how to ask for a favor a... by im3w1l on Saturday May 24, 2014 @07:52AM (#7793142)
They got a ROC AUC score of 0.67. This means that for a randomly chosen denied request and a randomly chosen accepted request, they will give a higher score to the accepted request 67% of times.
Re:Data mining Reddit posts reveals how to ask for a favor a... by ronaldx on Saturday May 24, 2014 @11:11AM (#7793459)
This makes the article correct (although makes no allowance for sampling error, nor for overfitting the available data).

Even so, I still dislike the use of this figure, as ROC AUC overstates a poor score: it hints at the model being correct 67% of the time.

In fact, the model is only knowledgeably correct 33% of the time, and just guessing the rest (taking its binary-choice 'score' up to 67%).

Re:Data mining Reddit posts reveals how to ask for a favor a... by Irishsteve on Saturday May 24, 2014 @08:02AM (#7793165)
Below 0.8 is pretty much random
Re:Data mining Reddit posts reveals how to ask for a favor a... by colanderman on Saturday May 24, 2014 @09:50AM (#7793319)
No, reread the parent's statement. The test involves distinguishing exactly one known accepted request and exactly one known rejected request. Probability of an acceptance does not come into play here; hence a random algorithm would choose the accepted request correctly 50% of the time.

What the algorithm performs poorly at is determining whether any single arbitrary request is accepted or rejected; that's the test that would require around 80% success rate.

Re:Data mining Reddit posts reveals how to ask for a favor a... by Irishsteve on Saturday May 24, 2014 @12:11PM (#7793610)
Eh - ok - let me rephrase. anything below 0.8 with ROC curves is usually considered to be very poor.

Can't quite recall the paper that gives the details. Think it might be this one http://www.hpl.hp.com/techreports/2003/HPL-2003-4.pdf

Re:Data mining Reddit posts reveals how to ask for a favor a... by andreasvc on Saturday May 24, 2014 @08:08PM (#7794904)
From the PDF you cite:

"Since the AUC is a portion of the area of the unit square, its value will always be between 0 and 1.0. However, because random guessing produces the diagonal line between (0, 0) and (1, 1), which has an area of 0.5, no realistic classifier should have an AUC less than 0.5."

So it appears that not 0.8 but 0.5 is the randomness threshold; therefore 0.7 is not so bad.

Re:Data mining Reddit posts reveals how to ask for a favor a... by taralx on Monday May 26, 2014 @08:42PM (#7802302)
Unfortunately not. IIRC, any classifier with AUC < 0.5 can be improved by just inverting its output. Real classification quality requires being significantly above 0.5 -- 0.8 is a common threshold.