When you look at it from that point of view, yes, the outcome is the same, and so from that perspective not only should Aereo be OK, but actual cable companies should not have to pay to take over the air signals and put them on their cables.

For better or worse, though, we've already decided we are going to look at more than just what the outcome is inside the home of the viewer, and consider at least some aspects of how the signal gets there. If you stick up an antenna at your location and receive a broadcast signal for viewing there (possibly delayed by a home recorder), that requires no permission. If you want to take those signals and stick them on a cable to distribute to your customers, or rebroadcast them through a satellite, we've decided that does require permission.

I think when Kagan talks about the same outcome, she means Aereo and a cable company are both third parties that deliver content from the broadcasters to you over a wire for pay.