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A comment on A group of 3,000 citizens is making better forecasts than CIA analysts. Parent comment

Re:A group of 3,000 citizens is making better forecasts than... by ctlaltdefeat on Wednesday April 02, 2014 @01:05PM (#7517017)
>If it were just luck, the “supers” would regress to the mean: yesterday’s champs would be today’s chumps.

huh?

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Re:A group of 3,000 citizens is making better forecasts than... by epi8 on Wednesday April 02, 2014 @01:08PM (#7517057)
If I just got really freaking lucky with my predictions yesterday, then there's no reason to imagine I would get really freaking lucky again. Over time, my average accuracy would become the mean of the distribution.

On the other hand, if I actually _am_ good at making predictions, then I will continue to make good predictions.

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