I said it 'could be' the next big thing, not it will be. I agree it's a long shot.

Web Apps have been very good to developers. Zero piracy, no installation issues, low support costs. Users like them because it's simple to get started, they aren't tied to one computer. The downsides are all long term -- and it's hard to get people to think about the future, or things like privacy.

I'm not sure where the drive would come from to make it happen. I don't see which company would put in the investment to get it started.