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Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by jofer on Thursday March 27, 2014 @09:25AM (#7480196)
What's interesting is that everyone's very aware of the seismic hazard along the San Andreas, but many people aren't aware of the much larger (but much less frequent) hazard in the Seattle/Portland area.

The San Andreas is a strike-slip system. It's not capable of generating very large (magnitude 8 or greater) earthquakes.

The Cascadia subduction zone has had magnitude 9 earthquakes in the past. The last one was on Jan. 26th, 1700. (Thank Japan for having excellent historical records of earthquakes and tsunamis. We know a large earthquake occurred around 300 years ago in the area, and thanks to Japan's record of the tsunami it caused, we can make a solid link to the exact date.)

We don't know the statistical hazard as well due to the small sample size, but when the next large Cascadia earthquake occurs the damage will be absolutely catastrophic.

It's not just the direct earthquake damage, but also the tsunami hazard. You need vertical offset to cause a tsunami. A strike-slip system like the San Andreas is very unlikely to cause a tsunami. The permanent offset is dominantly horizontal, so the only way to generate a tsunami is through secondary effects such as landslides. (Also, most of the length of the San Andreas is onshore.)

Subduction zones are thrust systems. One plate moves up, and the other moves down. Earthquakes there are likely to produce permanent vertical deformation at the surface.

Furthermore, certain types of subduction zones are more prone to generating large tsunamis. A deep earthquake is unlikely to cause much deformation at the seafloor, and therefore doesn't generate as large of a tsunami. However, the shallower the rupture penetrates, the larger the deformation at the seafloor is, and therefore the larger the tsunami is. Certain types of subduction zones are more prone to having large earthquakes that rupture all the way up to the seafloor. (The amount of sediment on top of the incoming oceanic plate is thought to play a large role in this, among other things. The recent Tonankai earthquake in northern Japan turned a lot of what we thought we knew about this on its head, though.)

The Cascadia subduction zone is one of the end-member types that's likely to have both large earthquakes and large tsunamis. We know it has in the past, and it's likely to in the future. It's unusual in that most of the deformation along the fault occurs through periodic creep ("slow-slip events") that doesn't cause an earthquake. (Actually, as we're finding out, it's not that unusual around the world, but it was first observed and is best documented in Cascadia.) However, while this creep does relieve a significant portion of the accumulated elastic strain, it doesn't relieve all of it. The plate boundary fault is still accumulating elastic strain that will eventually be released in a large earthquake.

At any rate, just something to think about. The seismic hazard in the Bay Area can be reduced through proper engineering solutions. (Though SOMA is going to be in very rough shape for the reasons this article mentions. Lesson for next time: Don't bulldoze all the rubble into a pile and then build on top of it!)

For Cascadia, though, you can't engineer your way around a magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami. You do the best you can, and try to avoid putting critical infrastructure near the coast.

Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by Tiktaalik on Thursday March 27, 2014 @12:15PM (#7481288)
In Vancouver BC it's well known that "the big one" is coming at some point, and I recall many earthquake drills as a child and a class field trip to UBC's earthquake research centre.

Even though the fact of the potential for a high magnitude earthquake is well known absolutely no one (including myself) is prepared for it at all. I've certainly been meaning to fashion myself a "bug out bag" in case of a disaster but haven't gotten around to it...

Vancouver also has a liquefaction concern. The false creek flats area is filled in estuary/marsh and though it's largely industrial there are plans to move Emily Carr School of Art to that area. I live pretty close to it so I have no idea how affected I am. Even worse is the entire nearby suburb of Richmond (pop 175k) is built on an island of silt in the Fraser River and is probably pretty much entirely a liquefaction zone.

Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by brightsize on Thursday March 27, 2014 @10:47AM (#7480691)
I sometimes imagine Spokane being inundated with refugees from the Big One, whether earthquake or Rainier blowing (or both). I've got a couple of spare rooms ya'll can use for a while. What'll be really interesting will be when the refugees realize that a house that would cost them $1.5M in Seattle will run about $300K in Spokane with no quake/volcano risk and no shortage of Starbucks shops around.
Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by sharkweek on Thursday March 27, 2014 @10:11AM (#7480467)
Following the major landslide that just occurred up here, was poking around and came across this fascinating article on what is likely to happen to Seattle in a large earthquake.

http://faculty.washington.edu/allstadt/Kates_website/Seattle...

TL;DR - major landslides

Here's a video of an "underwater forest" discovered by some divers in Lake Washington, seemingly caused by a previous landslide: http://vimeo.com/35477614

Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by seanmcdirmid on Thursday March 27, 2014 @10:17AM (#7480504)
Similar would happen if Ranier blows it's heavily glaciered top. People don't realize just how much Seattle is a death trap of earthquakes, volcanoes, and rain. Californians take note <s>.
Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by jchrisa on Thursday March 27, 2014 @10:53AM (#7480719)
Portland is starting to wake up to the issue. This was a fun event we have, to encourage people to be prepared to help. http://bikeportland.org/2013/07/13/disaster-relief-trials-br...

Not sure what to say about all those houses in the west hills besides good luck...

Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by ianvanness on Thursday March 27, 2014 @11:35AM (#7481000)
The Portland Mercury (a free alt-weekly) published a cover on this last year, mostly about how ill-prepared the city is in general for earthquakes. Glad to see this sort of friendly-neighbor approach happening though, as it's going to be more effective right now than waiting for the politics to catch up, and oh so very Portland.

http://www.portlandmercury.com/portland/the-first-four-minut...

Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by epaladin on Thursday March 27, 2014 @12:03PM (#7481189)
How much of a threat is it there? Portland's sounded like an attractive place to try to move to, having the best bicycle transport "infrastructure" in the country. Seems like the side-effects like mudslides are worse than the direct effect of the earthquakes themselves in that region.

I moved back from Japan just a few months before the 2011 disaster.

Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by edoloughlin on Thursday March 27, 2014 @11:19AM (#7480907)
Portland is starting to wake up to the issue

They're all stocked up on organic, locally sourced emergency supplies, then?

Sorry, I couldn't resist. Worth the karma damage.

Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by rybosome on Thursday March 27, 2014 @12:31PM (#7481443)
I was aware of the earthquake danger, but the tsunami is news to me. Given that we are not directly on the ocean, I imagined that the significant buffer provided by the Puget sound would absorb the majority of a tsunami; is that not the case?
Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by jofer on Thursday March 27, 2014 @01:02PM (#7481732)
You're right, Seattle would be sheltered from the brunt of a tsunami caused by a subduction zone earthquake. (More so than I realized until I looked up the predicted inundation maps. I'd forgotten how large Puget Sound is!)

A large tsunami would be quite damaging lot of smaller coastal cities along the western coast, though. It's a major concern, at any rate.

Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by rybosome on Thursday March 27, 2014 @02:27PM (#7482303)
Do you live in cascadia? Out of curiosity, what would be your advice in terms of personal preparation for a potential high-magnitude earthquake (assuming that my goal is simply for me and my wife to survive)?
Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by pault on Thursday March 27, 2014 @05:46PM (#7483739)
Two weeks of fresh drinking water and non-perishable foods, flashlight, a battery powered radio, and a deck of playing cards.
Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by pault on Thursday March 27, 2014 @05:59PM (#7483819)
Personal anecdote: I grew up in Seattle, and I was terrified of earthquakes for my whole childhood. Every time my apartment building would sway at night it would jolt me out of my sleep in a cold sweat. I did a few semesters at a design school on the waterfront that was built on top of a landfill which is predicted to liquify during a large earthquake and swallow the first 1-2 floors of the structures there. One day, while walking to class, I stopped to talk to a construction crew fixing cracks in the viaduct and they told me the entire waterfront sinks approximately 1 inch every year and requires constant repair to the infrastructure there. I've since moved to the atlantic coast and plan to avoid the pacific rim for the rest of my life. :)
Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by greendata on Thursday March 27, 2014 @03:28PM (#7482785)
The buildings in Seattle are also not prepared for a quake of the magnitude expected to hit it soon. California building codes are much stricter.

Downtown Seattle is also built on a mudflat that caused countless problems in early Seattle history. Areas built on mudflats will be hit especially hard in an earthquake.

Re:When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat... by brightsize on Thursday March 27, 2014 @10:54AM (#7480723)
A taste of things to come, courtesy of the DOT. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hos_uIKwC-c