Re:The Parable of Google Flu: Traps in Big Data Analysis [pdf]
by shakethemonkey on Sunday March 23, 2014 @07:46PM
(#7455787)
Google isn't trying to predict actual flu cases. They're trying to predict the CDC estimates.
Re:The Parable of Google Flu: Traps in Big Data Analysis [pdf]
by Fomite on Monday March 24, 2014 @12:58AM
(#7456797)
The problem with "the shape of the graph" correlating is that when modeling a seasonal disease, this is trivially easy. Public health decisions are made on the magnitude of some of those measurements, not their rough shape, and so being off on the exact measurement is a pretty big problem.
Is it possible the CDC estimates are off by half? Two main points come to mind:
* How many Type II errors do doctors commit?
* How many people with the flu do not visit a doctor? People with good health coverage are probably more likely to visit the doctor preemptively when they are feeling unwell, potentially skewing the results.
Also, while google may be off in the exact measurement when compared to the CDC, it looks like the shape of the graph correlates with the CDC data. Overall, this looks approach promising.