When you say things like, "you need a careful placement of 4s" it makes me think, "well that's not a proof."
So let me be formal. I'm posing the following decision problem: given a target score n and some initial board configuration of size (k * k), can one player force a score of at least n? I conjecture this problem is PSPACE-hard.
Your claim is that if n >= 2048 and k = 4 then the answer is always no (though I don't buy your justification). My question is more general, and it's clear that there is not a constant answer (e.g. if n is 2 the answer is always yes, but for some sufficiently large n the answer is always no)
Edit: Try to play it the other way, too. Try dropping tiles in the best most convenient pattern for the AI. Notice the amount of clutter that inevitably results when reaching higher numbers. An interesting question would be, if you control both the tile placement and movement, what is the highest number you can reach? With the constraint you can place only 2s.